18224 E Selkirk Estates Rd

Spokane Valley, WA 99016

$425,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,692 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,720/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$523
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-603/mo
• Annual: $-7,235/yr
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.08%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-603 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (36.0% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $272k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#31 in WA, #512 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Central Valley School District (urban): math 55% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #55 of 291 in WA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greenacres Elementary (606 students, 51% FRL); Greenacres Middle School (512 students, 40% FRL); Ridgeline High School (1,368 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,608 units permitted in Spokane County in 2024 (1,792 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Spokane County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 13 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.0% in Spokane Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.