1512 Elfrink Ln

Wentzville, MO 63385

$229,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,018/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$391
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-2/mo
• Annual: $-29/yr
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.99%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $64,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-29/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (12.2% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#14 in MO, #1,402 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Journey Elementary (math 38% / reading 49%, grade F, #472 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 549 students, 11% FRL); Timberland High (math 36% / reading 63%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,676 students, 13% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 695 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $230k implies a 191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.4% in Wentzville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.