1512 Elfrink Ln · Wentzville, MO 63385

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1974 1.00 ac lot $109/sqft · 57% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch home on 1 acre with serene lake access awaits its new owner. Featuring a walkout basement, this property offers endless potential for entertaining and enjoying the outdoors. Nestled in unincorporated St. Charles County within the sought-after Wentzville School District, it provides the perfect blend of peaceful living and convenient access to area amenities. Please note, a new septic system will need to be installed by the new owner. Showings are available this Friday, Saturday, and Sunday—don’t miss your chance to make this lakeside retreat your own! New roof April 2024 by John Beal Roof. New Well Pump '2025

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1974
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Single-phase electric; Cable and phone available; electricity and water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Residential property
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built information from public records
• Exterior features: Private backyard; Wooded lot; Waterfront views

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level, one in lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning with ceiling fans
• Interior features: Family room fireplace; Walk-out basement access; Partially finished basement with sleeping area; Full basement with bathroom; Concrete basement with 8+ ft pour

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-29/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.4% in Wentzville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#14 in MO, #1,402 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Journey Elementary (math 38% / reading 49%, grade F, #472 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 549 students, 11% FRL); Timberland High (math 36% / reading 63%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,676 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 695 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $230k implies a 191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,787 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.99%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $531,875
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -56.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-35,407
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-22,657
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63385

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,018 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,875/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,021

Max offer price $229,466

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $128	-5% $63	+0% $-2	+5% $-68	+10% $-133
Rent	-10% $-162	-5% $-82	+0% $-2	+5% $77	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $56	base $-2	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Chesterfield Ct Unit n/a Wentzville, MO	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,150	$1.53	5d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $229,900 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $229,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   status $240,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 662-char remark
9. 2026-05-06
   listed $240,000 Active 662-char remark
10. 2026-05-06
    historical $240,000 662-char remark
11. 1991-05-01
    soldstatus $79,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,875 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,875 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$2,875
• − Insurance: −$1,816
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,937
• − Management: −$1,937
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$3,917
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$940
• After-tax cash flow: $911/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wentzville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2931650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,961
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2994
• State rank: #32 of 324 in MO

Livability — Wentzville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #1402

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 51,330
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 51,330
• Household income: $112,199
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 662.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.98%
• Current HPI: 216.4917
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+191.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $229,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-09 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $240,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Coming Soon $240,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,875 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.