3639 Appleton Way

Stockton, CA 95219

$284,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 892 sqft · Built 1972 · Condo · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,962/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax + insurance: −$361
• HOA: −$310
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-615/mo
• Annual: $-7,380/yr
• Cap rate: 3.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.25%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $79,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-615 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (38.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (31.1% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (38.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mable Barron (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #917 of 1,571 statewide, top 60%, 672 students, 57% FRL); Sierra Middle (math 25% / reading 48%, grade F, #175 of 498 statewide, top 36%, 572 students, 73% FRL); Lincoln High (math 35% / reading 64%, grade D, #352 of 1,170 statewide, top 31%, 2,936 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $285k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?