3639 Appleton Way · Stockton, CA 95219

$284,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 892 sqft · Condo public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1972 $319/sqft · 14% below area Est $333k · 14% under $310/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SELLER OFFERING A $10,000 CREDIT FOR AN INTEREST RATE BUYDOWN! Easily eligible for FHA/VA this PUD sits in the heart of Lincoln Village West, a quiet and well kept community with quick access to I5 and the highly rated Lincoln School District. You're close to shopping, restaurants, and just a short trip to the marina great for anyone who enjoys evening walks and sunsets by the water. This home has been nicely updated throughout with new countertops, new flooring, fresh baseboards, and a brand new shower. Major improvements are already taken care of: the flat roof was recently replaced (approx. $12k), plus a new water heater, new oven, new sinks, and more. The backyard has a new fence, givin

Key facts

• New shower
• New flooring
• New water heater

Tags

• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW SHOWER
• FLAT ROOF REPLACED
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW OVEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners association; Monthly HOA fee ($310) covering grounds maintenance and pool access; Community pool amenity

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; assigned parking
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer: Other
• Home design: Attached single-family residence in a planned unit development; One-story home; Built in 1972
• Construction: Composition and flat roof
• Exterior features: Low-maintenance lot; Private gunite pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted living area; Dining and living areas combined with a formal dining area; Laundry closet located inside
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet with 220V in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-615 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (38.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (31.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (38.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mable Barron (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #917 of 1,571 statewide, top 60%, 672 students, 57% FRL); Sierra Middle (math 25% / reading 48%, grade F, #175 of 498 statewide, top 36%, 572 students, 73% FRL); Lincoln High (math 35% / reading 64%, grade D, #352 of 1,170 statewide, top 31%, 2,936 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $285k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,255 (38.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.25%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,722
• List price: $284,900
• Delta: -14.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $118,460
• Equity at exit: $256,660

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.82×
• Total profit: $384,875
• Equity at exit: $553,498

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,962 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,907/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$310
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-615

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,740

Max offer price $176,255

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-454	-5% $-534	+0% $-615	+5% $-696	+10% $-776
Rent	-10% $-770	-5% $-693	+0% $-615	+5% $-538	+10% $-460
Rate	-1.0pp $-472	-0.5pp $-543	base $-615	+0.5pp $-689	+1.0pp $-764

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3525 W Benjamin Holt Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	710	$2,015	$2.84	4d	11	0.12mi
3722 W Benjamin Holt Dr #13 Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	978	$2,000	$2.04	45d	1	0.26mi
3286 Blue Ridge Cir Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	975	$1,950	$2.00	25d	1	0.35mi
3286 Blue Ridge Cir Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	725	$1,495	$2.06	5d	1	0.35mi
3286 Blue Ridge Cir Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,950	$2.29	12d	2	0.35mi
3790 W Benjamin Holt Dr #13 Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	979	$1,850	$1.89	25d	1	0.36mi
3335 Riverton Way Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,402	$2.26	21d	1	0.40mi
6851 Plymouth Rd Unit 3 Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	45d	1	0.53mi
6851 Plymouth Rd Unit 1 Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	680	$1,450	$2.13	45d	1	0.53mi
6851 Plymouth Rd Unit 2 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$1,750	$2.03	45d	1	0.53mi
6353 Morgan Pl Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,975	$2.26	45d	1	0.54mi
6408 Morgan Pl Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	615	$1,960	$3.19	4d	4	0.56mi
6724 Plymouth Rd #37 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	760	$1,850	$2.43	25d	1	0.59mi
2903 Whittier Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1102	$1,995	$1.81	25d	1	0.60mi
6724 Plymouth Rd Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	660	$1,850	$2.80	5d	2	0.60mi
6724 Plymouth Rd Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	560	$1,400	$2.50	45d	1	0.60mi
3038 W Swain Rd Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	920	$2,100	$2.28	5d	1	0.62mi
2973 W Swain Rd Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	685	$1,925	$2.81	4d	6	0.62mi
7355 Kelley Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	890	$1,800	$2.02	5d	1	0.77mi
5858 Morgan Pl Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	884	$1,872	$2.12	4d	7	0.78mi
7356 Kelley Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,600	$1.44	25d	1	0.80mi
7565 Shoreline Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,255	$2.66	3d	4	0.87mi
5834 Brush Creek Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,295	$2.09	4d	1	0.99mi
7901 Montgomery Ave Unit 009 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,100	$2.00	4d	1	1.15mi
7901 Montgomery Ave Unit 010 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,075	$1.98	4d	1	1.15mi
7921 Montgomery Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,695	$1.51	45d	1	1.18mi
7912 Richland Way Stockton, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$2,079	$2.08	0d	7	1.23mi
8035 Mariners Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	942	$2,179	$2.31	0d	19	1.25mi
5301 Feather River Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$2,575	$3.02	4d	6	1.29mi
8473 Kelley Dr Unit D Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	980	$1,650	$1.68	13d	1	1.39mi
3591 Quail Lakes Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	930	$1,595	$1.72	5d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $310 · $3,720/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   price $284,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $285,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $285,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $285,000 Pending 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $285,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $297,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $297,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2004-07-30
    soldstatus $160,000
15. 2001-10-22
    soldstatus $114,000
16. 1997-07-25
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,907 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,907 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$2,907
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,884
• − Management: −$1,884
• − HOA: −$3,720
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$12,521
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,005
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,356
• Composite: 29.66/100
• National rank: #6465
• State rank: #284 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+190.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2004-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2001-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records
• 1997-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,907 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.