312 Pine St

South Dayton, NY 14138

$139,900D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,107 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Pending · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,321/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$378
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $-68/mo
• Annual: $-816/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-816/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (5.6% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,102 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine Valley Central School District (South Dayton) (rural): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #512 of 590 in NY (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Valley Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 307 students, 47% FRL); Pine Valley Central Junior-Senior High School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #974 of 1,100 statewide, top 91%, 217 students, 59% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $140k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?