312 Pine St · South Dayton, NY 14138

$139,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,107 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1910 9,375 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4-bedroom/2-bath all brick 2107 sq. ft. home has many updates. It features solid wood country kitchen; 19 x 21 living room; 17 x 22 family room with wood-burning fieldstone fireplace insert; full wall of built ins; newer roof, vinyl windows, and state-of-the art wall boiler; first floor office, laundry room, and fold-out sewing center; hardwood floors throughout; full walk-up attic; fully dry basement with workshop; covered back deck and covered front porch; detached one-car garage/barn with second floor storage; fenced backyard; blacktop driveway; pubic water and sewer. Stove, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, dryer stay.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Spacious kitchen
• Sunken family room

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• SIDE BREAKFAST ROOM
• SUNKEN FAMILY ROOM
• COZY OFFICE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-816/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,102 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine Valley Central School District (South Dayton) (rural): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #512 of 590 in NY (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Valley Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 307 students, 47% FRL); Pine Valley Central Junior-Senior High School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #974 of 1,100 statewide, top 91%, 217 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $140k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $127,884 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $38,958
• Equity at exit: $90,914

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $117,518
• Equity at exit: $167,492

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14138

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,321 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$320 /mo · $3,837/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,407

Max offer price $127,884

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11	-5% $-28	+0% $-68	+5% $-108	+10% $-147
Rent	-10% $-172	-5% $-120	+0% $-68	+5% $-16	+10% $36
Rate	-1.0pp $2	-0.5pp $-32	base $-68	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-02
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-01-23
   listed $139,900 Active
4. 2021-06-04
   soldstatus $79,787 Closed Sale or Rented 635-char remark

   Show marketing remark (635 chars)

   This 4-bedroom/2-bath all brick 2107 sq. ft. home has many updates. It features solid wood country kitchen; 19 x 21 living room; 17 x 22 family room with wood-burning fieldstone fireplace insert; full wall of built ins; newer roof, vinyl windows, and state-of-the art wall boiler; first floor office, laundry room, and fold-out sewing center; hardwood floors throughout; full walk-up attic; fully dry basement with workshop; covered back deck and covered front porch; detached one-car garage/barn with second floor storage; fenced backyard; blacktop driveway; pubic water and sewer. Stove, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, dryer stay.

5. 2021-06-04
   soldstatus $79,787

   Show marketing remark (635 chars)

   This 4-bedroom/2-bath all brick 2107 sq. ft. home has many updates. It features solid wood country kitchen; 19 x 21 living room; 17 x 22 family room with wood-burning fieldstone fireplace insert; full wall of built ins; newer roof, vinyl windows, and state-of-the art wall boiler; first floor office, laundry room, and fold-out sewing center; hardwood floors throughout; full walk-up attic; fully dry basement with workshop; covered back deck and covered front porch; detached one-car garage/barn with second floor storage; fenced backyard; blacktop driveway; pubic water and sewer. Stove, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, dryer stay.

6. 2021-03-23
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 635-char remark

   Show marketing remark (635 chars)

   This 4-bedroom/2-bath all brick 2107 sq. ft. home has many updates. It features solid wood country kitchen; 19 x 21 living room; 17 x 22 family room with wood-burning fieldstone fireplace insert; full wall of built ins; newer roof, vinyl windows, and state-of-the art wall boiler; first floor office, laundry room, and fold-out sewing center; hardwood floors throughout; full walk-up attic; fully dry basement with workshop; covered back deck and covered front porch; detached one-car garage/barn with second floor storage; fenced backyard; blacktop driveway; pubic water and sewer. Stove, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, dryer stay.

7. 2021-03-20
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 635-char remark

   Show marketing remark (635 chars)

   This 4-bedroom/2-bath all brick 2107 sq. ft. home has many updates. It features solid wood country kitchen; 19 x 21 living room; 17 x 22 family room with wood-burning fieldstone fireplace insert; full wall of built ins; newer roof, vinyl windows, and state-of-the art wall boiler; first floor office, laundry room, and fold-out sewing center; hardwood floors throughout; full walk-up attic; fully dry basement with workshop; covered back deck and covered front porch; detached one-car garage/barn with second floor storage; fenced backyard; blacktop driveway; pubic water and sewer. Stove, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, dryer stay.

8. 2021-03-10
   price $79,900 635-char remark

   Show marketing remark (635 chars)

   This 4-bedroom/2-bath all brick 2107 sq. ft. home has many updates. It features solid wood country kitchen; 19 x 21 living room; 17 x 22 family room with wood-burning fieldstone fireplace insert; full wall of built ins; newer roof, vinyl windows, and state-of-the art wall boiler; first floor office, laundry room, and fold-out sewing center; hardwood floors throughout; full walk-up attic; fully dry basement with workshop; covered back deck and covered front porch; detached one-car garage/barn with second floor storage; fenced backyard; blacktop driveway; pubic water and sewer. Stove, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, dryer stay.

9. 2021-01-14
   price $84,900 635-char remark

   Show marketing remark (635 chars)

   This 4-bedroom/2-bath all brick 2107 sq. ft. home has many updates. It features solid wood country kitchen; 19 x 21 living room; 17 x 22 family room with wood-burning fieldstone fireplace insert; full wall of built ins; newer roof, vinyl windows, and state-of-the art wall boiler; first floor office, laundry room, and fold-out sewing center; hardwood floors throughout; full walk-up attic; fully dry basement with workshop; covered back deck and covered front porch; detached one-car garage/barn with second floor storage; fenced backyard; blacktop driveway; pubic water and sewer. Stove, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, dryer stay.

10. 2020-12-30
    status Active 635-char remark

    Show marketing remark (635 chars)

    This 4-bedroom/2-bath all brick 2107 sq. ft. home has many updates. It features solid wood country kitchen; 19 x 21 living room; 17 x 22 family room with wood-burning fieldstone fireplace insert; full wall of built ins; newer roof, vinyl windows, and state-of-the art wall boiler; first floor office, laundry room, and fold-out sewing center; hardwood floors throughout; full walk-up attic; fully dry basement with workshop; covered back deck and covered front porch; detached one-car garage/barn with second floor storage; fenced backyard; blacktop driveway; pubic water and sewer. Stove, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, dryer stay.

11. 2020-12-12
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 635-char remark

    Show marketing remark (635 chars)

    This 4-bedroom/2-bath all brick 2107 sq. ft. home has many updates. It features solid wood country kitchen; 19 x 21 living room; 17 x 22 family room with wood-burning fieldstone fireplace insert; full wall of built ins; newer roof, vinyl windows, and state-of-the art wall boiler; first floor office, laundry room, and fold-out sewing center; hardwood floors throughout; full walk-up attic; fully dry basement with workshop; covered back deck and covered front porch; detached one-car garage/barn with second floor storage; fenced backyard; blacktop driveway; pubic water and sewer. Stove, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, dryer stay.

12. 2020-11-20
    price $89,900 635-char remark

    Show marketing remark (635 chars)

    This 4-bedroom/2-bath all brick 2107 sq. ft. home has many updates. It features solid wood country kitchen; 19 x 21 living room; 17 x 22 family room with wood-burning fieldstone fireplace insert; full wall of built ins; newer roof, vinyl windows, and state-of-the art wall boiler; first floor office, laundry room, and fold-out sewing center; hardwood floors throughout; full walk-up attic; fully dry basement with workshop; covered back deck and covered front porch; detached one-car garage/barn with second floor storage; fenced backyard; blacktop driveway; pubic water and sewer. Stove, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, dryer stay.

13. 2020-11-05
    listed $99,900 Active 635-char remark

    Show marketing remark (635 chars)

    This 4-bedroom/2-bath all brick 2107 sq. ft. home has many updates. It features solid wood country kitchen; 19 x 21 living room; 17 x 22 family room with wood-burning fieldstone fireplace insert; full wall of built ins; newer roof, vinyl windows, and state-of-the art wall boiler; first floor office, laundry room, and fold-out sewing center; hardwood floors throughout; full walk-up attic; fully dry basement with workshop; covered back deck and covered front porch; detached one-car garage/barn with second floor storage; fenced backyard; blacktop driveway; pubic water and sewer. Stove, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, dryer stay.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,837 · $320/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,837 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$3,837
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,268
• − Management: −$1,268
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$3,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$750
• After-tax cash flow: $-66/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Valley Central School District (South Dayton)
• NCES district ID: 3623070
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 21.00%
• Median HH income: $44,734
• Composite: 34.76/100
• National rank: #5129
• State rank: #512 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Dayton

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1102
• US rank: #22525

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Dayton, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,019

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.33%
• Current HPI: 374.5823
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+40.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-02 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $139,900 UNYREIS
• 2021-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $79,787 Public Records
• 2021-06-04 Sold (MLS) $79,787 UNYREIS
• 2021-03-23 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2021-03-20 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2021-03-10 Price Changed $79,900 UNYREIS
• 2021-01-14 Price Changed $84,900 UNYREIS
• 2020-12-30 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2020-12-12 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2020-11-20 Price Changed $89,900 UNYREIS
• 2020-11-05 Listed $99,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+13.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,837 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.