19150 Hesperian Blvd #19

San Lorenzo, CA 94541

$193,600B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 538 sqft · Built 1964 · Manufactured · Active · 267 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,769/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,015
• Tax + insurance: −$323
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $849/mo
• Annual: $10,191/yr
• Cap rate: 11.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.80%
• DSCR: 1.84
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $54,208

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $194k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $849 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $194k).
• It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#175 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• San Lorenzo Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,044 of 1,400 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 145 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 2.5% in San Lorenzo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.