19150 Hesperian Blvd #19 · San Lorenzo, CA 94541

$193,600

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 538 sqft · Manufactured public records · 267 Days on market

Built 1964 $360/sqft · 75% above area Est $192k · at est. ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Beautiful 3 bedrooms 1 bathroom offers comfort functionality and affordable living. Fresh paint on bedrooms, bathroom and kitchen, inside and outside, water filter on the kitchen.

Key facts

• Listed 266 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $849 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 2.5% in San Lorenzo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#175 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• San Lorenzo Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,044 of 1,400 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 145 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $170,368 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.80%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,500
• List price: $193,600
• Delta: 0.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $14,724
• Equity at exit: $28,866

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $51,569
• Equity at exit: $16,739

Cash invested: $54,208 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94541

• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,769 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,015
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$242 /mo · $2,904/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $849

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,694

Max offer price $193,600

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,400
• Closing costs: $5,808
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20913 Royal Ave Hayward Acres, CA	2.0	1.0	675	$2,800	$4.15	43d	1	0.33mi
226 Rondale Ct Unit 224 Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,950	$2.79	43d	1	0.49mi
280 Flint Ct Hayward Acres, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,250	$3.21	2d	1	0.60mi
22230 S Garden Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,500	$3.57	4d	1	0.76mi
22078 Arbor Ave Hayward Acres, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	649	$2,140	$3.29	20d	1	0.78mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22856 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	744	$3,995	$5.37	1d	1	0.97mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22854 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	748	$3,195	$4.27	43d	1	0.97mi
20331 Concord Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,250	$3.21	43d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $193,600 Active 267 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $193,600 Active 266 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $193,600 Active 264 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $193,600 Active 263 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $193,600 Active 260 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $193,600 Active 259 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $193,600 Active 258 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $193,600 Active 255 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $193,600 Active 254 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $193,600 Active 253 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $193,600 Active 252 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $193,600 Active 251 DOM
13. 2026-01-03
    price $193,600 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    This Beautiful 3 bedrooms 1 bathroom offers comfort functionality and affordable living. Fresh paint on bedrooms, bathroom and kitchen, inside and outside, water filter on the kitchen.

14. 2025-09-22
    historical

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    This Beautiful 3 bedrooms 1 bathroom offers comfort functionality and affordable living. Fresh paint on bedrooms, bathroom and kitchen, inside and outside, water filter on the kitchen.

15. 2025-09-22
    listed $199,999 Active 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    This Beautiful 3 bedrooms 1 bathroom offers comfort functionality and affordable living. Fresh paint on bedrooms, bathroom and kitchen, inside and outside, water filter on the kitchen.

16. 2025-06-13
    historical
17. 2025-06-13
    listed Active
18. 2025-05-07
    status Active
19. 2025-04-27
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2025-04-18
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,845
• − Property taxes: −$2,904
• − Insurance: −$968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,658
• − Management: −$2,658
• − Depreciation: −$5,632
• Taxable income: $7,559
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,814
• After-tax cash flow: $8,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Lorenzo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634710
• Math proficiency: 23% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $61,114
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #12087
• State rank: #1044 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Lorenzo

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #5658

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Lorenzo, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 29,420
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,139
• Household income: $105,729
• Rent vs Own: 53.3% rent · 46.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2966.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Asian 19% White 18% Two or more races 15% Black 11% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 36% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 35% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -830.36%
• Current HPI: 289.0537
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.03%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $193,600 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-22 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-22 Listed $199,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-06-13 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-06-13 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-05-07 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-04-27 Contingent — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-04-18 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2020): $35 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.