2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,040 sqft ·
Built 1971
· Manufactured
· Active
· 139 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,362/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$315
Tax + insurance
−$100
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$286
Net cashflow
$662/mo
Annual
$7,939/yr
Cap rate
19.52%
Cash-on-cash
47.26%
DSCR
3.10
1% rule
2.27%
Cash to close
$16,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $662 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#111 in CA, #3,863 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
Yuba City Unified (urban): math 20% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #263 of 517 in CA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Butte Vista Elementary (856 students, 46% FRL); Gray Avenue Middle (688 students, 89% FRL); River Valley High (math 23% / reading 53%, grade F, #571 of 1,170 statewide, top 49%, 1,771 students, 70% FRL).
Market conditions: 338 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 73 units permitted in Sutter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sutter County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 3.5% in Yuba City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Paint
— Light discoloration on exterior
Minor: Landscaping
— Overgrown shrubs need trimming
CashFlowRE · CFR-TG3PP8F16M80EX
· Data 3 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29