3505 Alpine Blvd #49

Alpine, CA 91901

$120,900B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 657 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,265/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$634
• Tax + insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $954/mo
• Annual: $11,449/yr
• Cap rate: 15.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.82%
• DSCR: 2.50
• 1% rule: 1.87%
• Cash to close: $33,852

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $121k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $954 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $121k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $836 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#711 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, commute A-, crime B; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 1.4% in Alpine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.