3386 Bertha Dr

Baldwin, NY 11510

$704,900D

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,945 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,697
• Tax + insurance: −$2,345
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,260
• Net cashflow: $-1,302/mo
• Annual: $-15,619/yr
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.11%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $197,372

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $705k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $475k (32.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $600k (14.9% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($684k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $475k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#38 in NY, #580 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Baldwin Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #93 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Meadow Elementary School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 588 students, 40% FRL); Baldwin Middle School (math 44% / reading 66%, grade B-, #212 of 729 statewide, top 29%, 1,027 students, 45% FRL); Baldwin Senior High School (math 95% / reading 92%, grade A+, #131 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 1,484 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 14% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $315k; list at $705k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.7% in Baldwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?