3386 Bertha Dr · Baldwin, NY 11510

$704,900

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,945 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1962 6,300 sqft lot $239/sqft · 25% below area Est $935k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience true South Shore waterfront living in this spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath canal front home on Bertha Drive. Perfectly positioned on a quiet Baldwin canal, this property offers direct water access and a layout designed for comfort, flexibility, and year-round enjoyment. The main level features bright living spaces, an eat-in kitchen, and well-proportioned bedrooms, including a primary bedroom with its own private bath. The additional bedrooms and baths provide convenience for guests, extended family, or multi-generational living. The walkout lower level expands your living options with a generous living room/den area complete with a fireplace, creating a warm and inviting space for ga

Key facts

• Private bath
• Walkout lower level
• Canal front home

Tags

• WATERFRONT LIVING
• CANAL FRONT HOME
• DIRECT WATER ACCESS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALKOUT LOWER LEVEL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Waterfront property

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 9 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating; Natural gas heating; Other heating; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features; Unfinished attic; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $705k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $475k (32.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $600k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $475k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.7% in Baldwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#38 in NY, #580 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Baldwin Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #93 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Meadow Elementary School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 588 students, 40% FRL); Baldwin Middle School (math 44% / reading 66%, grade B-, #212 of 729 statewide, top 29%, 1,027 students, 45% FRL); Baldwin Senior High School (math 95% / reading 92%, grade A+, #131 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 1,484 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 14% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($684k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $315k; list at $705k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $474,974 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.11%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $935,438
• List price: $704,900
• Delta: -24.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3379 Bertha Dr	0.03mi	6/2.5 (+1)	2,800 (-5%)	10mo	$810,000	$289	77
3394 Bertha Dr	0.01mi	5/2.0	3,092 (+5%)	24mo	$600,000	$194	70
1001 Green Pl	0.16mi	5/3.0	2,668 (-9%)	10mo	$800,000	$300	66
3362 Colony Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,800 (-5%)	7mo	$910,000	$325	66
3526 Daniel Cres	0.33mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,584 (-12%)	1mo	$858,500	$332	58
3208 Grand Blvd	0.35mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,673 (-9%)	10mo	$780,000	$292	55
859 Jefferson St	0.62mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,000 (+2%)	10mo	$825,000	$275	48
1116 Washington Pl	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,640 (-10%)	4mo	$875,000	$331	44
3161 Grand Ave	0.64mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,546 (-14%)	7mo	$900,000	$353	36
673 Jackie Ln	0.75mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,751 (-7%)	17mo	$850,000	$309	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-196,311
• Equity at exit: $105,103

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-274,398
• Equity at exit: $60,947

Cash invested: $197,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11510

• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,697
• Tax from tax record: −$1,591 /mo · $19,090/yr
• Insurance: −$294
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,260
• Net cashflow: $-1,302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,648

Max offer price $474,974

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $176,225
• Closing costs: $21,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3544 Woodward St Oceanside, NY	5.0	3.0	2750	$6,000	$2.18	19d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $704,900 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $704,900 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $704,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $704,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $704,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $704,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $704,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $704,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $704,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $704,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $704,900 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $704,900 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $704,900 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $704,900 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $704,900 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $704,900 Active 1245-char remark
17. 1998-09-29
    soldstatus $315,000
18. 1983-09-01
    soldstatus $152,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $19,090 · $1,591/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,090 · $1,591/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,485
• − Property taxes: −$19,090
• − Insurance: −$9,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,760
• − Management: −$5,760
• − Depreciation: −$20,506
• Taxable loss: −$27,651
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,636
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3603840
• Math proficiency: 69% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $99,594
• Composite: 64.93/100
• National rank: #509
• State rank: #93 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baldwin

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #580

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baldwin, NY
• City population: 34,814
• Population (ZIP): 34,814

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 41% White 28% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Romanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -578.11%
• Current HPI: 314.4598
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+362.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $704,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records
• 1983-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $152,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $19,090 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.