812 E Pembroke St

Tuscola, IL 61953

$120,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,251 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,332/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $183/mo
• Annual: $2,193/yr
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.53%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#257 in IL, #4,735 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Tuscola CUSD 301 (town): math 16% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #380 of 620 in IL (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $120k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.4% in Tuscola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.