812 E Pembroke St · Tuscola, IL 61953

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,251 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1935 6,098 sqft lot $96/sqft · 19% below area Est $148k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Solid investment opportunity in Tuscola! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath ranch-style home offers 1,251 square feet of functional living space and is currently leased through 10/31/2026 at $950 per month, providing immediate and consistent rental income. The existing lease and security deposit will transfer to the new owner, allowing for a seamless transition. Looking ahead, this property also presents a great owner-occupant opportunity after 10/31/2026, offering flexibility for a future primary residence or continued investment use. This home can be purchased individually or as part of a discounted package with 313 Pembroke and 701 S. Embarras in Tuscola, creating a strong multi-property portfolio. Please note that a minimum of 24-hour notice is required for all showings.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1935
• Listed 50 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.4% in Tuscola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#257 in IL, #4,735 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Tuscola CUSD 301 (town): math 16% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #380 of 620 in IL (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $120k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.53%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,259
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -19.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
913 Timmons Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (-10%)	2mo	$145,000	$129	68
606 E Houghton St	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,168 (-7%)	10mo	$170,000	$146	64
303 N Main St	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,302 (+4%)	6mo	$150,000	$115	62
500 S Embarras Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,347 (+8%)	1mo	$135,000	$100	61
305 E South Central Ave	0.42mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,224 (-2%)	13mo	$135,500	$111	59
601 N Ohio St	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,353 (+8%)	10mo	$220,000	$163	57
110 E Van Allen St	0.64mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,300 (+4%)	8mo	$152,000	$117	50
408 E Barker St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+12%)	7mo	$165,000	$118	48
404 E Scott St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (-6%)	11mo	$225,000	$191	47
205 E Northline Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,385 (+11%)	1mo	$205,000	$148	46
204 Douglas Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,403 (+12%)	1mo	$159,200	$113	44
1003 S Pleasantview Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,329 (+6%)	9mo	$105,000	$79	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-7,760
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $8,413
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61953

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,332 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,283/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,101

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $217	+0% $183	+5% $149	+10% $115
Rent	-10% $78	-5% $130	+0% $183	+5% $235	+10% $288
Rate	-1.0pp $243	-0.5pp $213	base $183	+0.5pp $152	+1.0pp $120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
808 E Ficklin St Tuscola, IL	3.0	1.0	940	$1,425	$1.52	44d	1	0.57mi
704 N Main St Tuscola, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,200	$1.55	14d	3	0.67mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $120,000 Active 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Solid investment opportunity in Tuscola! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath ranch-style home offers 1,251 square feet of functional living space and is currently leased through 10/31/2026 at $950 per month, providing immediate and consistent rental income. The existing lease and security deposit will transfer to the new owner, allowing for a seamless transition. Looking ahead, this property also presents a great owner-occupant opportunity after 10/31/2026, offering flexibility for a future primary residence or continued investment use. This home can be purchased individually or as part of a discounted package with 313 Pembroke and 701 S. Embarras in Tuscola, creating a strong multi-property portfolio. Please note that a minimum of 24-hour notice is required for all showings.

18. 2018-10-22
    soldstatus $60,000 477-char remark

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    This nicely decorated, well kept 3 bedroom home will be sure to make you feel at home. The living room is just off the large and spacious kitchen. Two of the three bedrooms are nicely sized with one being just right. Do your laundry while you look out onto the huge deck, 24' x 16' to be exact. The walk in tub can be easily replaced with a normal shower and tub. No walls are modified when these tubs are installed. Call today for a private showing. Let's make your day great.

19. 2018-10-22
    soldstatus $60,000

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    This nicely decorated, well kept 3 bedroom home will be sure to make you feel at home. The living room is just off the large and spacious kitchen. Two of the three bedrooms are nicely sized with one being just right. Do your laundry while you look out onto the huge deck, 24' x 16' to be exact. The walk in tub can be easily replaced with a normal shower and tub. No walls are modified when these tubs are installed. Call today for a private showing. Let's make your day great.

20. 2018-10-22
    soldstatus $60,000

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    This nicely decorated, well kept 3 bedroom home will be sure to make you feel at home. The living room is just off the large and spacious kitchen. Two of the three bedrooms are nicely sized with one being just right. Do your laundry while you look out onto the huge deck, 24' x 16' to be exact. The walk in tub can be easily replaced with a normal shower and tub. No walls are modified when these tubs are installed. Call today for a private showing. Let's make your day great.

21. 2018-08-24
    listed $60,000 477-char remark

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    This nicely decorated, well kept 3 bedroom home will be sure to make you feel at home. The living room is just off the large and spacious kitchen. Two of the three bedrooms are nicely sized with one being just right. Do your laundry while you look out onto the huge deck, 24' x 16' to be exact. The walk in tub can be easily replaced with a normal shower and tub. No walls are modified when these tubs are installed. Call today for a private showing. Let's make your day great.

22. 2018-08-24
    listed $60,000

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    This nicely decorated, well kept 3 bedroom home will be sure to make you feel at home. The living room is just off the large and spacious kitchen. Two of the three bedrooms are nicely sized with one being just right. Do your laundry while you look out onto the huge deck, 24' x 16' to be exact. The walk in tub can be easily replaced with a normal shower and tub. No walls are modified when these tubs are installed. Call today for a private showing. Let's make your day great.

23. 2015-06-25
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,283 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,503 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: +$221/yr (+$18/mo · 9.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,984
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,283
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,279
• − Management: −$1,279
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $331
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$79
• After-tax cash flow: $2,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscola CUSD 301
• NCES district ID: 1739600
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $50,982
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8748
• State rank: #380 of 620 in IL

Livability — Tuscola

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #257
• US rank: #4735

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tuscola, IL
• Population (ZIP): 6,439

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,209 people
• By 2030: 18,940 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 18,397 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 17,829 · -7.2%
• By 2075: 16,395 · -14.6%
• By 2100: 14,329 · -25.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.1) · D 26.1% · R 72.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.3pp · 2024: -46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.1 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+36.8 2008: R+21.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.74%
• Current HPI: 192.1209
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $120,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-22 Sold (MLS) $60,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-22 Sold (MLS) $60,000 CIBR
• 2018-08-24 Listed $60,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-24 Listed $60,000 CIBR
• 2015-06-25 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,283 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.