2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,820 sqft ·
Built 1981
· Manufactured
· Active
· 255 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,524/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,306
Tax + insurance
−$415
HOA
−$999
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$740
Net cashflow
$64/mo
Annual
$769/yr
Cap rate
6.60%
Cash-on-cash
1.10%
DSCR
1.05
1% rule
1.42%
Cash to close
$69,720
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($769/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $249k).
It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $219k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,050 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A-, employment B+, housing B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Desert Sands Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #199 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 545 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
17 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $15k; list at $249k implies a 1560% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.5% in Palm Desert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,524/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1734% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: kitchen cabinets
— dated and in need of replacement
Moderate: bathroom fixtures
— outdated and in need of replacement
Minor: exterior paint
— some wear
CashFlowRE · CFR-TGV7PR1KGY9K0E
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29