439 Trevorton Rd

Zerbe, PA 17872

$179,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,500 sqft · Built 1964 · Other · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,417/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-53/mo
• Annual: $-641/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-641/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (20.8% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $142k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Line Mountain SD (rural): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #266 of 539 in PA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Line Mountain El Sch (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #737 of 1,518 statewide, top 52%, 368 students, 48% FRL); Line Mountain Ms (math 20% / reading 62%, grade F, #243 of 512 statewide, top 48%, 307 students, 48% FRL); Line Mountain Hs (math 84%, 331 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.