531 E Shady Oaks Dr

Germantown Hills, IL 61548

$158,000B

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,320 sqft · Built 1967 · Other · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,924/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $533/mo
• Annual: $6,398/yr
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.46%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $44,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $158k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#158 in IL, #2,935 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• County Of Woodford School (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #75 of 620 in IL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Metamora High School (math 47% / reading 44%, grade D-, #58 of 693 statewide, top 8%, 915 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Woodford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Woodford County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.