531 E Shady Oaks Dr · Germantown Hills, IL 61548

$158,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,320 sqft · Other public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1967 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Eat in kitchen with fireplace and sliding glass doors, 1/2 bath off of kitchen, Large living room with lots of natural light, 3 bedrooms, full bath shared with master bath, full finished basement with fireplace in rec room, 2 stall garage under house. large slopping yard, shed in back yard. Metamora high school and Germantown grade school. Sold As Is.

Key facts

• Eat in kitchen
• Sliding glass doors
• Rec room

Tags

• EAT IN KITCHEN
• FIREPLACE
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• FULL FINISHED BASEMENT
• REC ROOM
• SHED IN BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $156k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#158 in IL, #2,935 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• County Of Woodford School (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #75 of 620 in IL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Metamora High School (math 47% / reading 44%, grade D-, #58 of 693 statewide, top 8%, 915 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Woodford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Woodford County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $155,630 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.46%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $71,692
• Equity at exit: $90,975

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.22×
• Total profit: $186,708
• Equity at exit: $158,214

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61548

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,924 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,110/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,249

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-26
   listed $158,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,110 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,348 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,239/yr (+$103/mo · 111.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$1,110
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,847
• − Management: −$1,847
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable income: $4,049
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$972
• After-tax cash flow: $5,427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: County Of Woodford School
• NCES district ID: 1725770
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,248
• Composite: 41.2/100
• National rank: #3540
• State rank: #75 of 620 in IL

Livability — Germantown Hills

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #2935

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,165

Population outlook (Woodford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,897 people
• By 2030: 40,038 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 39,745 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 38,585 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 34,769 · -12.9%
• By 2100: 27,616 · -30.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Woodford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.0) · D 28.2% · R 70.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: -26.6pp · 2024: -42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.0 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.15%
• Current HPI: 345.14
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $158,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,110 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.