4861 South Valley Pike

Harrisonburg, VA 22801

$250,000C

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,461 sqft · Built 1947 · Other · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,452/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$417
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $210/mo
• Annual: $2,516/yr
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.59%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (1.9% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#24 in VA, #666 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-.
• Rockingham County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #77 of 131 in VA (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pleasant Valley Elementary (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 229 students, 66% FRL); Wilbur S. Pence Middle (math 46% / reading 64%, grade B-, #189 of 342 statewide, top 56%, 668 students, 39% FRL); Turner Ashby High (math 78% / reading 82%, grade A, #60 of 319 statewide, top 19%, 994 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 32% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 683 units permitted in Rockingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rockingham County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $250k implies a 355% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.8% in Harrisonburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.