10049 Heather Ln #101

Island Walk, FL 34119

$334,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,547 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 305 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,889/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,752
• Tax + insurance: −$490
• HOA: −$1,044
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$817
• Net cashflow: $-213/mo
• Annual: $-2,555/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $93,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $334k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-213 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (11.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $334k).
• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $294k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#692 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Memorial Elementary School (math 78% / reading 79%, grade A, #141 of 2,144 statewide, top 7%, 743 students, 22% FRL); Gulf Coast High School (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,447 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 21% FRL vs 55% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo; HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 586 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $334k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?