294 Johnson Cir

Colony, AL 35077

$30,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,203/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $771/mo
• Annual: $9,253/yr
• Cap rate: 37.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 110.16%
• DSCR: 5.90
• 1% rule: 4.01%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $771 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $28k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#478 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Cullman County (rural): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #49 of 129 in AL (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hanceville Elementary School (math 14% / reading 46%, grade F, #364 of 627 statewide, top 58%, 624 students, 78% FRL); Hanceville Middle School (math 12% / reading 51%, grade F, #114 of 257 statewide, top 45%, 304 students, 77% FRL); Hanceville High School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #195 of 305 statewide, top 68%, 366 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 52% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Cullman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.