294 Johnson Cir · Colony, AL 35077

$30,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1981 1.00 ac lot $30/sqft · 78% below area ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller is a recipient of Alabama Medicaid and 3rd party approval is needed for closing. The flooring in the home is falling in and the home is uninhabitable. Access to the inside is restricted to contractors and inspectors only. Current asking price is consistent with current tax assessed value due to Medicaid requirements until the property can be reassessed. Buyers agent to verify anything of importance to buyer such as taxes, schools and zoning. Property is sold "AS IS" and repairs will not be completed prior to closing.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1981
• Listed 82 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $771 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#478 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Cullman County (rural): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #49 of 129 in AL (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Cullman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 110.16%
• DSCR: 5.90
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,588
• List price: $30,000
• Delta: -78.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $44,252
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.12×
• Total profit: $101,778
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35077

• Home prices YoY: -12.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $113/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $771

Break-even live

Break-even rent $227

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $788	-5% $780	+0% $771	+5% $763	+10% $754
Rent	-10% $676	-5% $724	+0% $771	+5% $819	+10% $866
Rate	-1.0pp $786	-0.5pp $779	base $771	+0.5pp $763	+1.0pp $755

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $30,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $30,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $30,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $30,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $30,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $30,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $30,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $30,000 Active 61 DOM
18. 2026-04-22
    price $30,000 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    Seller is a recipient of Alabama Medicaid and 3rd party approval is needed for closing. The flooring in the home is falling in and the home is uninhabitable. Access to the inside is restricted to contractors and inspectors only. Current asking price is consistent with current tax assessed value due to Medicaid requirements until the property can be reassessed. Buyers agent to verify anything of importance to buyer such as taxes, schools and zoning. Property is sold "AS IS" and repairs will not be completed prior to closing.

19. 2026-03-30
    listed $60,500 Active 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    Seller is a recipient of Alabama Medicaid and 3rd party approval is needed for closing. The flooring in the home is falling in and the home is uninhabitable. Access to the inside is restricted to contractors and inspectors only. Current asking price is consistent with current tax assessed value due to Medicaid requirements until the property can be reassessed. Buyers agent to verify anything of importance to buyer such as taxes, schools and zoning. Property is sold "AS IS" and repairs will not be completed prior to closing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $113 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $123 · $10/mo
• Expected delta: +$10/yr (+$1/mo · 9.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$113
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,155
• − Management: −$1,155
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $9,310
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,234
• After-tax cash flow: $7,019/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cullman County
• NCES district ID: 0101020
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,449
• Composite: 28.39/100
• National rank: #6767
• State rank: #49 of 129 in AL

Livability — Colony

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #24370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Colony, AL
• County: Cullman County · 47,767 people
• Metro: Cullman, AL
• Population (ZIP): 13,107
• Household income: $48,276
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 323.0

Population outlook (Cullman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,522 people
• By 2030: 85,402 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 86,152 · +1.9%
• By 2050: 85,202 · +0.8%
• By 2075: 79,679 · -5.7%
• By 2100: 66,943 · -20.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cullman

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+80.5) · D 9.4% · R 89.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.3pp toward R · 2008: -65.2pp · 2024: -80.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+80.5 2020: R+77.4 2016: R+77.8 2012: R+69.5 2008: R+65.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.31%
• Current HPI: 258.7978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cullman, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-50.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $30,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $60,500 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $113 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.