1631 Dorjun Dr

Port Townsend, WA 98368

$459,950F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,066 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,176/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax + insurance: −$767
• HOA: −$69
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$667
• Net cashflow: $-739/mo
• Annual: $-8,864/yr
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.88%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $128,786

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $460k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-739 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $353k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (31.0% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($446k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $318k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#506 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime D.
• Port Townsend School District (town): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #101 of 291 in WA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Salish Coast Elementary (441 students, 51% FRL); Port Townsend High School (377 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 147 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.5% in Port Townsend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,176/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 345% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.