1631 Dorjun Dr · Port Townsend, WA 98368

$459,950

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,066 sqft · Land · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 3,600 sqft lot $69/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Harbor on homesite 52 at Madrona Ridge, a beautiful Lennar community. This home features an open-concept layout among the great room, dining area, and gourmet kitchen. The first floor includes a bedroom and full bathroom, ideal for a home office or guest suite. Outside, enjoy a covered back patio. Upstairs offers a versatile loft and three bedrooms, including the owner’s suite with a spa-like bathroom and walk-in closet. With Lennar’s signature Everything’s Included®, enjoy stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, shaker-style cabinetry and more—all at no extra cost. Buyer’s broker must be registered during the customer’s first i

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Gourmet kitchen
• Spa-like bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• VERSATILE LOFT
• SPA-LIKE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home listed as very good condition; Lot features noted on plot plan (lot 52)
• Financial info: Financing options: Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA, VA
• HOA & community: HOA managed by J & M Management; Monthly HOA fee of $69.17 (includes common area maintenance)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Covered parking for 1 vehicle; Driveway
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water (City of Port Townsend); Sewer connected (City of Port Townsend); Power provided by Jefferson County PUD; Astound Fiber internet connected
• Home design: Single-family residence, two-story; East-facing; Built 2026 (new construction, completed); Built on lot
• Construction: Cement plank construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built by Lennar (Lennar at Madrona Ridge)
• Exterior features: Cement plank siding; Curbs, paved streets, sidewalks; Trails in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total — 1 main-level bedroom, 3 upper-level bedrooms (includes primary bedroom on second level and an additional bedroom on third level)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl plank; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms — 1 on main level, 2 on upper level
• Heating & cooling: High-efficiency heating (90%+), forced air, heat pump; Central air conditioning, forced air, heat pump
• Interior features: Dining room; Loft/bonus room; Walk-in closet(s); Water heater (garage)
• Laundry & utility: Heat pump electric water heater located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $460k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-739 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $353k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (31.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $318k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.5% in Port Townsend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#506 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime D.
• Port Townsend School District (town): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #101 of 291 in WA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Salish Coast Elementary (441 students, 51% FRL); Port Townsend High School (377 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 147 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,176/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 345% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($446k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $317,585 (31.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.88%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-121,489
• Equity at exit: $68,580

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-166,005
• Equity at exit: $39,768

Cash invested: $128,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98368

• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$575 /mo · $6,899/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$667
• Net cashflow: $-739

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,111

Max offer price $353,060

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,988
• Closing costs: $13,798
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   price $459,950
3. 2026-04-03
   price $469,950
4. 2026-03-31
   price $472,400
5. 2026-03-20
   soldstatus $777,088
6. 2026-03-09
   listed $474,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,764
• − Property taxes: −$6,899
• − Insurance: −$2,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,049
• − Management: −$3,049
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$13,380
• Taxable loss: −$17,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,118
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Townsend School District
• NCES district ID: 5306840
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,686
• Composite: 48.79/100
• National rank: #4526
• State rank: #101 of 291 in WA

Livability — Port Townsend

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #506
• US rank: #20880

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime D Employment D+ Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Townsend, WA
• County: Jefferson County · 17,304 people
• City population: 17,304
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 17,304
• Household income: $69,688
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 345.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,415 people
• By 2030: 31,568 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 30,911 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 29,927 · -4.7%
• By 2075: 28,489 · -9.3%
• By 2100: 26,483 · -15.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.3) · D 71.0% · R 25.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.7pp toward D · 2008: 34.6pp · 2024: 45.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.3 2020: D+41.4 2016: D+32.7 2012: D+31.4 2008: D+34.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -577.30%
• Current HPI: 183.9706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $459,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $469,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $472,400 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $777,088 Public Records
• 2026-03-09 Listed $474,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid