502 Florida Blvd

Palm Harbor, FL 34681

$725,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,875 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Active · 154 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,338/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,802
• Tax + insurance: −$1,635
• HOA: −$2
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$701
• Net cashflow: $-2,802/mo
• Annual: $-33,623/yr
• Cap rate: 2.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.04%
• DSCR: 0.38
• 1% rule: 0.46%
• Cash to close: $203,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $725k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-34k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (55.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $334k (54.0% below list).
• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($638k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $320k (55.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in FL, #1,470 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ozona Elementary School (math 73% / reading 66%, grade A-, #364 of 2,144 statewide, top 19%, 762 students, 31% FRL); Palm Harbor Middle School (math 59% / reading 57%, grade B, #151 of 571 statewide, top 27%, 1,080 students, 37% FRL); Palm Harbor University High (math 54% / reading 72%, grade B-, #89 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,474 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 48% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pinellas average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 133d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 79% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $375k; list at $725k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 56% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?