502 Florida Blvd · Palm Harbor, FL 34681

$725,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,875 sqft · SingleFamily · 109 Days on market

Built 1963 Good condition 0.25 ac lot 2-car garage $387/sqft · 6% below area Est $768k · 6% under $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICELESS! Outstanding home on . 25 acre in Crystal Beach with waterview over Sutherland bayou and private fishpond with waterfall. Corner lot across from preserve. Only one block from Gulf of Mexico. New white kitchen with black granite and breakfast nook with built-in granite table. Bathrooms with granite tops. MBR with Jacuzzi tub. Fireplace with granite hearth. Big inside laundry. Heated swimming pool with salt generating system and waterfall. Fenced in 'secret garden' with lush tropical landscape. Garden shed with A/C currently used as office. Brick paver driveway and detached garage.

Key facts

• Salt water pool
• Updated bathrooms
• All-new appliances

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD RETREAT
• SALT WATER POOL
• NEW PLANK TILE FLOORING
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• ALL-NEW APPLIANCES
• UPDATED BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $725k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (55.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $337k (53.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $323k (55.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in FL, #1,470 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ozona Elementary School (math 73% / reading 66%, grade A-, #364 of 2,144 statewide, top 19%, 762 students, 31% FRL); Palm Harbor Middle School (math 59% / reading 57%, grade B, #151 of 571 statewide, top 27%, 1,080 students, 37% FRL); Palm Harbor University High (math 54% / reading 72%, grade B-, #89 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,474 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 48% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pinellas average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 94d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($660k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $375k; list at $725k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $323,396 (55.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.88%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 17.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $767,837
• List price: $725,000
• Delta: -1.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
349 Kentucky Ave	0.20mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,916 (+2%)	4mo	$605,000	$316	74
261 Kentucky Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	2,079 (+11%)	13mo	$830,000	$399	61
135 Florida Blvd	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (-12%)	8mo	$525,000	$317	55
378 Tennessee Ave	0.19mi	3/3.0	2,132 (+14%)	11mo	$789,900	$370	55
2483 Islander Ct	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,818 (-3%)	4mo	$435,000	$239	52
2521 Gulfbreeze Cir	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,684 (-10%)	1mo	$450,000	$267	52
841 Delaware Ave	0.61mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,747 (-7%)	6mo	$725,000	$415	46
698 Crystal Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,677 (-11%)	9mo	$380,000	$227	43
2474 Islander Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,659 (-12%)	5mo	$535,000	$322	43
890 Kriswell Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,630 (-13%)	12mo	$485,000	$298	37
852 Crystal Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,675 (-11%)	12mo	$541,000	$323	34
2321 Islander Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,621 (-14%)	17mo	$440,000	$271	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-142,862
• Equity at exit: $268,814

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-189,342
• Equity at exit: $374,331

Cash invested: $203,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.2 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $669,958 ($362/sqft)
• Median days on market: 142 d
• This list price: 61% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34681

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 17.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,371 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,802
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$906 /mo · $10,875/yr
• Insurance: −$302
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$708
• Net cashflow: $-2,775

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,885

Max offer price $323,396

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,274	-5% $-2,525	+0% $-2,775	+5% $-3,026	+10% $-3,276
Rent	-10% $-3,042	-5% $-2,909	+0% $-2,775	+5% $-2,642	+10% $-2,509
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,410	-0.5pp $-2,591	base $-2,775	+0.5pp $-2,963	+1.0pp $-3,154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $181,250
• Closing costs: $21,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
555 S Gulf Dr Unit 1308649P Crystal Beach, FL	4.0	2.5	2195	$10,169	$4.63	117d	1	0.16mi
515 Crystal Beach Ave Crystal Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1760	$3,500	$1.99	7d	1	0.34mi
520 Avery Ave Crystal Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,500	$2.50	7d	1	0.48mi
2468 Gulfbreeze Cir Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,795	$1.81	87d	1	0.58mi
1264 Riserva Ln Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.5	2102	$3,450	$1.64	120d	1	0.81mi
414 Ulelah Ave Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1343	$2,700	$2.01	43d	1	0.83mi
508 Ulelah Ave Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,700	$1.92	100d	1	0.84mi
802 Woodhill Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1428	$5,000	$3.50	120d	1	0.88mi
2000 Brent Pl Palm Harbor, FL	4.0	4.0	2132	$3,500	$1.64	120d	1	1.11mi
1545 Indiana Ave Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$3,000	$1.98	7d	1	1.32mi
3710 Desoto Blvd Palm Harbor, FL	4.0	2.0	2250	$3,494	$1.55	94d	1	1.47mi
539 Vista Trail Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.5	1940	$1,500	$0.77	67d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease restrictions indicatedHomestead exempt
• HOA & community: Has HOA (optional fees) — $30 annually (approx. $2.50/month)Golf carts allowedPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (20x20) with garage door openerParking pad
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerCable connectedElectricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne storyFaces south
• Construction: Stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt as residential property
• Exterior features: PatioFrench doorsVinyl fencingCorner lotDrainage canalBamboo, fruit trees and mature landscaping

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in ovenDishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioningFireplace in the family room
• Interior features: Open floorplanSplit-bedroom layoutWalk-in closet(s)Window treatmentsSkylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (inside laundry)

HOA detail $2/mo · $24/yr

• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $725,000 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $725,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $725,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $725,000 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   pricedays on market $725,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $760,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $760,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $760,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $760,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $760,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $760,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $760,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $760,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $760,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $760,000 Active 90 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $760,000 Active 89 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $760,000 Active 88 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $760,000 Active 85 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $760,000 Active 84 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $760,000 Active 83 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $760,000 Active 82 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $760,000 Active 81 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $760,000 Active 79 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $760,000 Active 78 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $760,000 Active 77 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $760,000 Active 76 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $760,000 Active 75 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $760,000 Active 74 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $760,000 Active 73 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $760,000 Active 72 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $760,000 Active 71 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $760,000 Active 70 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $760,000 Active 69 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $760,000 Active 68 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $760,000 Active 67 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $760,000 Active 66 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $760,000 Active 65 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $760,000 Active 64 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $760,000 Active 63 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $760,000 Active 62 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $760,000 Active 60 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $760,000 Active 59 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $760,000 Active 58 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $760,000 Active 57 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $760,000 Active 54 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $760,000 Active 52 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $760,000 Active 51 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $760,000 Active 49 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $760,000 Active 47 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    price $760,000 Active 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,611
• − Property taxes: −$10,875
• − Insurance: −$8,744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,237
• − Management: −$3,237
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$21,091
• Taxable loss: −$47,360
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,366
• After-tax cash flow: $-21,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,375–$28,125 screening

This charming home in Crystal Beach is well-maintained and ready for move-in, with fresh updates and a private pool.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting — fresh paint improves aesthetics ↑
• Both kitchen appliances — new appliances add functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 64/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ozona Elementary School A- FL #364/2,144 Nat'l #3,487/41,679 Middle Palm Harbor Middle School B FL #151/571 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Palm Harbor University High B- FL #89/667 Nat'l #3,148/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Palm Harbor

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #1470

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living B Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Harbor, FL
• County: Pinellas · 1,027,532 people
• City population: 79,072
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 1,331
• Rent vs Own: 10.0% rent · 90.0% own

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Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 23% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Iranian 6% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 6%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.56%
• Current HPI: 336.3416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease restrictions indicatedHomestead exempt
• HOA & community: Has HOA (optional fees) — $30 annually (approx. $2.50/month)Golf carts allowedPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (20x20) with garage door openerParking pad
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerCable connectedElectricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne storyFaces south
• Construction: Stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt as residential property
• Exterior features: PatioFrench doorsVinyl fencingCorner lotDrainage canalBamboo, fruit trees and mature landscaping

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in ovenDishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioningFireplace in the family room
• Interior features: Open floorplanSplit-bedroom layoutWalk-in closet(s)Window treatmentsSkylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (inside laundry)

Price history

+101.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-23 Price Changed $785,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-07 Listed $795,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-05 Listed $524,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-24 Sold (MLS) $375,210 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-03 Listed $389,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid