3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,128 sqft ·
Built 1997
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 105 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,163/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$671
Tax + insurance
−$213
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$244
Net cashflow
$35/mo
Annual
$415/yr
Cap rate
6.62%
Cash-on-cash
1.16%
DSCR
1.05
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$35,812
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($415/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (9.1% below list).
It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $116k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $884 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#163 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
Jones County School District (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #40 of 130 in MS (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: West Jones Elementary School (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #130 of 375 statewide, top 35%, 1,022 students, 100% FRL); West Jones High School (math 42% / reading 35%, grade F, #56 of 197 statewide, top 29%, 1,516 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 59% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jones County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $49k; list at $128k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 90% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-THZ1C24DVJN809
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29