1753 State Route 209

Otisville, NY 12790

$270,000C-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,312 sqft · Built 1750 · SingleFamily · Active · 289 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,115/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$970
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-715/mo
• Annual: $-8,582/yr
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.04%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-715 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (46.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (21.7% below list).
• It's been on market 289 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (46.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#459 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Port Jervis City School District (rural): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #451 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: N A Hamilton Bicentennial School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 464 students, 54% FRL); Port Jervis Middle School (math 22% / reading 35%, grade F, #569 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 379 students, 59% FRL); Port Jervis Senior High School (math 87% / reading 95%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 750 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1750 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.4% in Otisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 289 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1750 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.