637 Bakers Branch Dr

Murphys Estates, SC 29860

$235,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,338 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,904/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $113/mo
• Annual: $1,354/yr
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.06%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (19.0% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#239 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Edgefield 01 (rural): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #48 of 80 in SC (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Merriwether Elementary (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #306 of 597 statewide, top 51%, 768 students, 59% FRL); Merriwether Middle (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #104 of 229 statewide, top 46%, 367 students, 62% FRL); Strom Thurmond High (math 27% / reading 72%, grade D, #151 of 196 statewide, top 79%, 748 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: 369 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 181 units permitted in Edgefield County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Edgefield County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $235k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.6% in Murphys Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.