637 Bakers Branch Dr · Murphys Estates, SC 29860

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,338 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2005 0.50 ac lot Est $273k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on approximately half an acre in an established community with no HOA! Featuring a covered rocking chair front porch, this property offers plenty of charm and potential for the right buyer willing to give it a little TLC. Major updates have already been completed, including a new roof installed in 2025 and a new HVAC system installed in 2023, providing peace of mind on two big-ticket items. The home also features an attached 2-car garage along with a storage building in the backyard, offering plenty of space for parking, tools, hobbies, or additional storage needs. Whether you're an investor, first-time buyer looking to build sweat equity, or someone searching for a property to make your own, this home is full of possibilities. Conveniently located in a mature neighborhood with no HOA restrictions. Home is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Mature neighborhood
• Storage building
• No hoa restrictions

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• ATTACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• STORAGE BUILDING
• MATURE NEIGHBORHOOD
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Stephens Mill; Directions: From I-20, take Exit 5 toward Edgefield, turn left onto Stephens Rd., turn right onto Stephens Mill Dr., then right onto Bakers Branch. Home will be on the left.
• HOA & community: Association amenities: Other

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (4 cars); Concrete driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Entry level 1; Residential zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Landscaped lot; Has a view; Paved road frontage (city street and state road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Eat-in kitchen; Window coverings; Smoke detector(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.6% in Murphys Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#239 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Edgefield 01 (rural): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #48 of 80 in SC (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Merriwether Elementary (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #306 of 597 statewide, top 51%, 768 students, 59% FRL); Merriwether Middle (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #104 of 229 statewide, top 46%, 367 students, 62% FRL); Strom Thurmond High (math 27% / reading 72%, grade D, #151 of 196 statewide, top 79%, 748 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: 369 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 181 units permitted in Edgefield County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Edgefield County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $235k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,368 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.06%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,952
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
654 Bakers Branch Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,397 (+4%)	1mo	$284,900	$204	86
125 Macedonia Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,369 (+2%)	8mo	$299,987	$219	64
204 Mcduffie Cir	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,369 (+2%)	7mo	$265,000	$194	59
849 Coronet Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+10%)	11mo	$265,000	$180	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-31,009
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-18,214
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29860

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 369
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,904 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $730/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,761

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $246	-5% $179	+0% $113	+5% $46	+10% $-20
Rent	-10% $-38	-5% $38	+0% $113	+5% $188	+10% $263
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $173	base $113	+0.5pp $52	+1.0pp $-10

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $235,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $235,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    remarks 699-char remark
18. 2026-05-30
    listed $235,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $730 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,340 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$610/yr (+$51/mo · 83.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$730
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,828
• − Management: −$1,828
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$2,716
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$652
• After-tax cash flow: $2,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edgefield 01
• NCES district ID: 4502070
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,958
• Composite: 27.75/100
• National rank: #6897
• State rank: #48 of 80 in SC

Livability — Murphys Estates

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #239
• US rank: #19848

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Edgefield County · 18,201 people
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 18,201
• Household income: $97,268
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 114.0

Population outlook (Edgefield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,188 people
• By 2030: 25,803 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 24,658 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 23,034 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 19,448 · -25.7%
• By 2100: 15,301 · -41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 16% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Edgefield

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.9) · D 33.5% · R 65.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: -10.9pp · 2024: -31.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.9 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+13.3 2008: R+10.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.23%
• Current HPI: 253.9451
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+106.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $235,000 AMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $235,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $110,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-09-20 Sold (MLS) $105,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-08-09 Listed $299,998 Hive MLS
• 2015-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 2015-10-26 Sold (MLS) $118,000 Hive MLS
• 2015-10-26 Sold (MLS) $118,000 Hive MLS
• 2015-07-09 Listed $119,900 Hive MLS
• 2015-07-09 Listed $119,900 Hive MLS
• 2009-05-14 Sold (MLS) $105,000 Hive MLS
• 2009-05-14 Sold (MLS) $105,000 Hive MLS
• 2008-01-09 Listed $110,000 Hive MLS
• 2005-12-20 Sold (MLS) $114,000 Hive MLS
• 2005-12-20 Sold (MLS) $114,000 Hive MLS
• 2005-06-27 Listed $114,000 Hive MLS
• 2005-06-27 Listed $114,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $730 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.