8412 CR 647

Nobleton, FL 33513

$65,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,844/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$498
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $618/mo
• Annual: $7,413/yr
• Cap rate: 25.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.86%
• DSCR: 4.06
• 1% rule: 2.84%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $618 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#880 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.