8412 CR 647 · Nobleton, FL 33513

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1973 0.43 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

WEEK END RETREAT OR ALL YEAR ROUND! This well maintained home has it all! Square footage does not include 10x30 encl. porch with heat/air. Additonal 16x24 worrkshop also htd/air. It has untility room with sinks for fish cleaning and an out door barbequepit for large family gathering. Stroll down to the canal flowing into the Withlacochee River, sit on the bench and enjoy the good life. .. Features inside the home include a wet bar, built in china cabinet, washer/dryer/extra refrigerator. You will have many good times in this special retreat area that is just 10 miles from Bushnell. See you there!

Key facts

• 0.43 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1973

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; On waterfront — riverfront property with river access and river view (Withlacoochee River) with approximately 30 feet of frontage; Lot is paved and approximately 0.43 acres (0.25–0.5 acre); Living area reported as 1,440 sq ft; total building area reported as 1,640 sq ft; Zoning: R4M; Homestead: Yes; Directions provided to property

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 covered space
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One story; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Other; Cooling: Other
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Dry bar; Eat-in kitchen; Living room / dining room combo; Open floorplan; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $618 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#880 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,025 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.86%
• DSCR: 4.06
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $269,280
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8970 CR 646	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+1%)	3mo	$165,000	$113	88
15092 Edgewater Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,493 (+4%)	6mo	$279,500	$187	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.12×
• Total profit: $75,014
• Equity at exit: $58,557

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.6%
• Equity multiple: 11.47×
• Total profit: $190,495
• Equity at exit: $126,281

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33513

• Home prices YoY: 12.8%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,844 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $530/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $618

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,062

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $65,000 Active
3. 2008-09-09
   soldstatus $69,900
4. 2008-09-01
   soldstatus $69,900 603-char remark

   Show marketing remark (603 chars)

   WEEK END RETREAT OR ALL YEAR ROUND! This well maintained home has it all! Square footage does not include 10x30 encl. porch with heat/air. Additonal 16x24 worrkshop also htd/air. It has untility room with sinks for fish cleaning and an out door barbequepit for large family gathering. Stroll down to the canal flowing into the Withlacochee River, sit on the bench and enjoy the good life. .. Features inside the home include a wet bar, built in china cabinet, washer/dryer/extra refrigerator. You will have many good times in this special retreat area that is just 10 miles from Bushnell. See you there!

5. 2008-02-23
   listed $69,900 603-char remark

   Show marketing remark (603 chars)

   WEEK END RETREAT OR ALL YEAR ROUND! This well maintained home has it all! Square footage does not include 10x30 encl. porch with heat/air. Additonal 16x24 worrkshop also htd/air. It has untility room with sinks for fish cleaning and an out door barbequepit for large family gathering. Stroll down to the canal flowing into the Withlacochee River, sit on the bench and enjoy the good life. .. Features inside the home include a wet bar, built in china cabinet, washer/dryer/extra refrigerator. You will have many good times in this special retreat area that is just 10 miles from Bushnell. See you there!

6. 2006-12-29
   listed $99,900
7. 2005-10-20
   listed $139,900
8. 1983-12-01
   soldstatus $49,000
9. 1974-02-01
   soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $530 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $540 · $45/mo
• Expected delta: +$10/yr (+$1/mo · 1.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$530
• − Insurance: −$5,444
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,770
• − Management: −$1,770
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $7,078
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,699
• After-tax cash flow: $5,715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nobleton

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #880
• US rank: #23567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,647

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.29%
• Current HPI: 354.5531
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+124.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records
• 2008-09-01 Sold (MLS) $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-23 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-29 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-20 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1983-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1974-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $530 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.