2453 Union Blvd Apt 21B

Islip, NY 11751

$325,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Pending · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,441/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$542
• HOA: −$1,225
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$723
• Net cashflow: $-752/mo
• Annual: $-9,028/yr
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.92%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-752 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $325k).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $315k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#59 in NY, #878 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Islip Union Free School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #186 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wing Elementary School (379 students, 35% FRL); Islip Middle School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade D-, #379 of 729 statewide, top 54%, 641 students, 37% FRL); Islip High School (math 88% / reading 93%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 892 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 20% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $325k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?