111 Sfc 421

Madison, AR 72335

$129,500D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,540 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 143 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax + insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $170/mo
• Annual: $2,042/yr
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.63%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $36,260

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (7.0% below list).
• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $895 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#307 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Forrest City School District (town): math 12% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #230 of 238 in AR (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (725 students, 100% FRL); Forrest City Jr. High (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #189 of 201 statewide, top 94%, 275 students, 100% FRL); Forrest City High School (math 6% / reading 10%, grade F, #282 of 292 statewide, top 97%, 580 students, 99% FRL).
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in St. Francis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Francis County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.