111 Sfc 421 · Madison, AR 72335

$129,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,540 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1970 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.6/10.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Listing Just outside of Forrest City. Discover this charming 1,540 sq. ft. home nestled among mature trees in a peaceful, quiet neighborhood. This beautiful property features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Double carport offering both comfort and convenience. Enjoy the perfect blend of country living with easy access to town amenities. This home is ideal for families or anyone seeking space, privacy and tranquility.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 142 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#307 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Forrest City School District (town): math 12% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #230 of 238 in AR (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (725 students, 100% FRL); Forrest City Jr. High (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #189 of 201 statewide, top 94%, 275 students, 100% FRL); Forrest City High School (math 6% / reading 10%, grade F, #282 of 292 statewide, top 97%, 580 students, 99% FRL).
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in St. Francis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $895 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Francis County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.63%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-10,197
• Equity at exit: $19,309

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,869
• Equity at exit: $11,197

Cash invested: $36,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72335

• Home prices YoY: -4.9%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $582/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $989

Max offer price $129,500

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $243	-5% $207	+0% $170	+5% $134	+10% $97
Rent	-10% $75	-5% $123	+0% $170	+5% $218	+10% $265
Rate	-1.0pp $235	-0.5pp $203	base $170	+0.5pp $137	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,375
• Closing costs: $3,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,500 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,500 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,500 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,500 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,500 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,500 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,500 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,500 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,500 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,500 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,500 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,500 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,500 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,500 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,500 Active 122 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 121 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 120 DOM
18. 2026-01-30
    listed $129,500 New Listing 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    New Listing Just outside of Forrest City. Discover this charming 1,540 sq. ft. home nestled among mature trees in a peaceful, quiet neighborhood. This beautiful property features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Double carport offering both comfort and convenience. Enjoy the perfect blend of country living with easy access to town amenities. This home is ideal for families or anyone seeking space, privacy and tranquility.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $582 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $829 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$246/yr (+$21/mo · 42.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,254
• − Property taxes: −$582
• − Insurance: −$648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,157
• − Management: −$1,157
• − Depreciation: −$3,767
• Taxable loss: −$107
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$26
• After-tax cash flow: $2,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forrest City School District
• NCES district ID: 0506270
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,153
• Composite: 9.07/100
• National rank: #9871
• State rank: #230 of 238 in AR

Livability — Madison

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #20578

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison, AR
• City population: 201
• Population (ZIP): 16,514

Population outlook (St. Francis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,387 people
• By 2030: 23,269 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 21,122 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 19,281 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 15,222 · -37.6%
• By 2100: 11,449 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Francis

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 48.6% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: 16.5pp · 2024: 0.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.7 2020: D+5.1 2016: D+11.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+16.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.86%
• Current HPI: 133.8115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Listed $129,500 CARMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $582 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.