51 Forest Rd

Lumpkin, GA 31815

$198,999D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,941 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,229/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-232/mo
• Annual: $-2,790/yr
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.01%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (38.2% below list).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#587 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, crime F, amenities F.
• Stewart County (rural): math 35% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #141 of 187 in GA (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 87% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stewart County Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,092 of 1,228 statewide, top 91%, 192 students, 100% FRL); Stewart County Middle School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #333 of 470 statewide, top 72%, 96 students, 100% FRL); Stewart County High School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #232 of 424 statewide, top 56%, 119 students, 100% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Stewart County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Stewart County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stewart County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $101k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $199k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?