51 Forest Rd · Lumpkin, GA 31815

$198,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,941 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1979 2.00 ac lot $103/sqft · 15% below area Est $235k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER!!! Discover the perfect blend of space, comfort, and privacy in this beautiful 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom home located in the sought-after Westwood Hills subdivision in Lumpkin, GA 31815. Nestled on a generous 2-acre lot, this 1,941-square-foot residence offers peaceful surroundings with plenty of room to live, relax, and entertain. Step inside to find a spacious and inviting floor plan designed for both everyday living and hosting guests. The home features well-sized bedrooms, each offering comfort and flexibility, along with three full bathrooms for added convenience. Natural light fills the living spaces, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere throughout. Outside, the expansive 2-acre property provides endless possibilities-whether you dream of outdoor entertaining, gardening, or simply enjoying the quiet beauty of nature. With plenty of open space, there's room to customize and make it truly your own. Located in a quiet, established community, this home offers the charm of country living while still being within reach of local amenities. If you're looking for space, comfort, and a serene setting, this Westwood Hills property is ready to welcome you home.

Key facts

• Outdoor entertaining
• 2 acre lot
• 2 acre lot

Tags

• 2 ACRE LOT
• WESTWOOD HILLS SUBDIVISION
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• ESTABLISHED COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (38.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#587 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, crime F, amenities F.
• Stewart County (rural): math 35% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #141 of 187 in GA (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 87% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stewart County Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,092 of 1,228 statewide, top 91%, 192 students, 100% FRL); Stewart County Middle School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #333 of 470 statewide, top 72%, 96 students, 100% FRL); Stewart County High School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #232 of 424 statewide, top 56%, 119 students, 100% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Stewart County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Stewart County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Stewart County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $101k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $199k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,941 (38.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.01%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,253
• List price: $198,999
• Delta: -15.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37 Hillcrest Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,748 (-10%)	8mo	$165,000	$94	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $9,079
• Equity at exit: $89,479

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $52,983
• Equity at exit: $137,897

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31815

• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $927/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,524

Max offer price $157,932

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-120	-5% $-176	+0% $-232	+5% $-289	+10% $-345
Rent	-10% $-330	-5% $-281	+0% $-232	+5% $-184	+10% $-135
Rate	-1.0pp $-132	-0.5pp $-182	base $-232	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $198,999 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,999 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,999 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,999 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,999 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $198,999 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,999 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $198,999 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $198,999 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $198,999 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $198,999 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $198,999 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $198,999 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $198,999 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $198,999 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $259,999 1190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1209 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!!!! Discover the perfect blend of space, comfort, and privacy in this beautiful 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom home located in the sought-after Westwood Hills subdivision in Lumpkin, GA 31815. Nestled on a generous 2-acre lot, this 1,941-square-foot residence offers peaceful surroundings with plenty of room to live, relax, and entertain. Step inside to find a spacious and inviting floor plan designed for both everyday living and hosting guests. The home features well-sized bedrooms, each offering comfort and flexibility, along with three full bathrooms for added convenience. Natural light fills the living spaces, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere throughout. Outside, the expansive 2-acre property provides endless possibilities—whether you dream of outdoor entertaining, gardening, or simply enjoying the quiet beauty of nature. With plenty of open space, there’s room to customize and make it truly your own. Located in a quiet, established community, this home offers the charm of country living while still being within reach of local amenities. If you’re looking for space, comfort, and a serene setting, this Westwood Hills property is ready to welcome you home.

17. 2026-04-28
    price $259,999 1209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1209 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!!!! Discover the perfect blend of space, comfort, and privacy in this beautiful 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom home located in the sought-after Westwood Hills subdivision in Lumpkin, GA 31815. Nestled on a generous 2-acre lot, this 1,941-square-foot residence offers peaceful surroundings with plenty of room to live, relax, and entertain. Step inside to find a spacious and inviting floor plan designed for both everyday living and hosting guests. The home features well-sized bedrooms, each offering comfort and flexibility, along with three full bathrooms for added convenience. Natural light fills the living spaces, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere throughout. Outside, the expansive 2-acre property provides endless possibilities—whether you dream of outdoor entertaining, gardening, or simply enjoying the quiet beauty of nature. With plenty of open space, there’s room to customize and make it truly your own. Located in a quiet, established community, this home offers the charm of country living while still being within reach of local amenities. If you’re looking for space, comfort, and a serene setting, this Westwood Hills property is ready to welcome you home.

18. 2026-04-01
    listed $299,999 New 1190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1209 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!!!! Discover the perfect blend of space, comfort, and privacy in this beautiful 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom home located in the sought-after Westwood Hills subdivision in Lumpkin, GA 31815. Nestled on a generous 2-acre lot, this 1,941-square-foot residence offers peaceful surroundings with plenty of room to live, relax, and entertain. Step inside to find a spacious and inviting floor plan designed for both everyday living and hosting guests. The home features well-sized bedrooms, each offering comfort and flexibility, along with three full bathrooms for added convenience. Natural light fills the living spaces, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere throughout. Outside, the expansive 2-acre property provides endless possibilities—whether you dream of outdoor entertaining, gardening, or simply enjoying the quiet beauty of nature. With plenty of open space, there’s room to customize and make it truly your own. Located in a quiet, established community, this home offers the charm of country living while still being within reach of local amenities. If you’re looking for space, comfort, and a serene setting, this Westwood Hills property is ready to welcome you home.

19. 2026-04-01
    listed $299,999 Active 1209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1209 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!!!! Discover the perfect blend of space, comfort, and privacy in this beautiful 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom home located in the sought-after Westwood Hills subdivision in Lumpkin, GA 31815. Nestled on a generous 2-acre lot, this 1,941-square-foot residence offers peaceful surroundings with plenty of room to live, relax, and entertain. Step inside to find a spacious and inviting floor plan designed for both everyday living and hosting guests. The home features well-sized bedrooms, each offering comfort and flexibility, along with three full bathrooms for added convenience. Natural light fills the living spaces, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere throughout. Outside, the expansive 2-acre property provides endless possibilities—whether you dream of outdoor entertaining, gardening, or simply enjoying the quiet beauty of nature. With plenty of open space, there’s room to customize and make it truly your own. Located in a quiet, established community, this home offers the charm of country living while still being within reach of local amenities. If you’re looking for space, comfort, and a serene setting, this Westwood Hills property is ready to welcome you home.

20. 2026-01-28
    soldstatus $87,000
21. 2026-01-23
    soldstatus $87,000 Closed
22. 2025-12-29
    status Pending
23. 2025-12-19
    price $94,995
24. 2025-11-26
    price $105,000
25. 2025-11-03
    listed $110,000 Active
26. 2015-12-18
    soldstatus $36,000
27. 2014-06-09
    soldstatus $125,432
28. 1997-04-01
    soldstatus $76,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $927 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,831 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$904/yr (+$75/mo · 97.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$927
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,180
• − Management: −$1,180
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$6,465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,552
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stewart County
• NCES district ID: 1304590
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $26,971
• Composite: 27.25/100
• National rank: #12434
• State rank: #141 of 187 in GA

Livability — Lumpkin

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #587
• US rank: #25966

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lumpkin, GA
• Population (ZIP): 2,989

Population outlook (Stewart County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,873 people
• By 2030: 6,241 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 6,569 · +11.9%
• By 2050: 6,461 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 5,819 · -0.9%
• By 2100: 5,086 · -13.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 22% Hispanic / Latino 18% Asian 3% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stewart

• 2024 margin: D (+16.3) · D 58.0% · R 41.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.8pp · 2024: 16.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.3 2020: D+19.1 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+27.6 2008: D+24.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+242.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $259,999 GAMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $259,999 FMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $299,999 FMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $299,999 GAMLS
• 2026-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-23 Sold (MLS) $87,000 CBOR
• 2025-12-29 Pending — CBOR
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $94,995 CBOR
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $105,000 CBOR
• 2025-11-03 Listed $110,000 CBOR
• 2015-12-18 Sold (MLS) $36,000 GAMLS
• 2014-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $125,432 Public Records
• 1997-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $927 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.