105 Heartwood Ln

Burlington, VT 05446

$150,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,195/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$500
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $337/mo
• Annual: $4,045/yr
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.63%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.46%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in VT, #4,619 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, schools B; Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $150k implies a 426% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.1% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.