105 Heartwood Ln · Burlington, VT 05446

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1996 Est $147k · at est. $500/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Vacation vibes come naturally at this cozy lakeside property, complete with beach access and mooring rights. Located in Colchester, the nearby Island Line Trail and famed Causeway offer a scenic ride to Burlington or out across Lake Champlain along a historic rail bed. Enjoy all that Colchester has to offer, including community tennis and pickleball courts, local restaurants, boat clubs, and seasonal concerts—just 7 miles from downtown Burlington and the University of Vermont. Set at the end of Woodland Shores Mobile Home Park, this property enjoys a desirable end-of-park location with unobstructed lake views. Inside, the home features a charming cottage feel with a light, beach-inspi

Key facts

• Mooring rights
• Pickleball courts
• Beach access

Tags

• BEACH ACCESS
• MOORING RIGHTS
• ISLAND LINE TRAIL
• COMMUNITY TENNIS COURTS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• UNOBSTRUCTED LAKE VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From South Burlington, take I-89 N to Exit 16. Follow US-2 (Roosevelt Hwy) toward Colchester, then turn right onto North Ave Extension. Turn right onto West Lakeshore Dr, then into the park (Hawthorne Ln) and follow to Heartwood Ln. #105.
• HOA & community: HOA fee of $500 per month; HOA covers plowing, recreation, and sewer; Association amenities include beach access, boat mooring, and common acreage; Road frontage maintained by association

Exterior

• Parking: Dirt driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Community sewer and on-site septic exists; Circuit breaker electrical service (Green Mountain Power); Propane fuel service (AmeriGas); High-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home (Mobile/Manuf); Existing construction; Shingle - asphalt roof; Built in 1996; Located in Woodland Shores Park (mobile park approved)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Manufactured home construction
• Exterior features: Beach access; Lake access; Lake view; Located on Lake Champlain

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating
• Interior features: 4 total rooms; Carpet and laminate flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.1% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in VT, #4,619 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, schools B; Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $150k implies a 426% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.63%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $146,916
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
96 Hawthorne Ln	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	924 (0%)	13mo	$147,000	$159	79
22 Hawthorne Ln	0.06mi	2/1.5	840 (-9%)	6mo	$43,000	$51	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,581
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $26,434
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05446

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,195 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $571/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$500
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,768

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $422	-5% $380	+0% $337	+5% $295	+10% $252
Rent	-10% $164	-5% $250	+0% $337	+5% $424	+10% $510
Rate	-1.0pp $413	-0.5pp $375	base $337	+0.5pp $298	+1.0pp $259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $500 · $6,000/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   historical Active with Contract
3. 2026-04-15
   listed $150,000 Active
4. 2006-12-15
   soldstatus $28,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $571 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,710 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,140/yr (+$95/mo · 199.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$571
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,107
• − Management: −$2,107
• − HOA: −$6,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $2,036
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$489
• After-tax cash flow: $3,557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment B Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chittenden County · 110,603 people
• City population: 31,662
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• Population (ZIP): 16,452
• Household income: $97,475
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 259.0

Population outlook (Chittenden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,769 people
• By 2030: 174,716 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 180,337 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 183,768 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 194,646 · +14.0%
• By 2100: 194,933 · +14.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chittenden

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 75.4% · R 21.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+54.5 2016: D+46.8 2012: D+41.9 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.02%
• Current HPI: 406.7675
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+426.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-30 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $150,000 PrimeMLS
• 2006-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $571 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.