4342 Lehman Dr

Kirby, TX 78219

$149,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,492/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$366
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $32/mo
• Annual: $383/yr
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($383/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $149k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $147k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#761 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 7.7% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.5% in Kirby — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.