410 Pond View Ln

Surf City, NC 28443

$253,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Active · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,994/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,327
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$15
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-16/mo
• Annual: $-197/yr
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $70,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $253k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-197/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (21.2% below list).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $199k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#357 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pender County Schools (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #66 of 178 in NC (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Topsail Elementary (math 70% / reading 68%, grade A-, #105 of 1,410 statewide, top 8%, 608 students, 26% FRL); Topsail Middle (math 64% / reading 65%, grade A-, #30 of 475 statewide, top 7%, 807 students, 20% FRL); Topsail High (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #121 of 535 statewide, top 24%, 1,777 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 22% FRL vs 47% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pender County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 943 units permitted in Pender County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pender County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $253k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 0.9% in Surf City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.