410 Pond View Ln · Surf City, NC 28443

$253,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1993 0.77 ac lot Est $261k · at est. $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 410 Pond View Lane in Hampstead, NC -- a private retreat just minutes from Topsail Island and Surf City beaches, where you get coastal access without sacrificing space or privacy. This recently renovated home offers a bright, clean interior with modern finishes and a layout that feels open and functional from the moment you walk in. The updated kitchen delivers both style and practicality, and the bathrooms present a fresh, contemporary look that requires no additional work. Set on a generous 0.77-acre lot, the property creates a rare sense of separation, enhanced by its cul-de-sac location that limits traffic and adds peace of mind. Step outside and you find a large, tree-lined

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac location
• Generous lot
• Coastal access

Tags

• COASTAL ACCESS
• RECENTLY RENOVATED
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GENEROUS LOT
• CUL-DE-SAC LOCATION
• LARGE TREE LINED YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RP
• Financial info: (no investor/multifamily financial details listed)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $180 (about $15/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved parking
• Security: (no additional security features listed)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Other utilities (unspecified)
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); One level / single-story; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Metal roof; Crawl space / no basement; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Shed(s) / storage; Has a view; Cul-de-sac lot; Unimproved road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5 (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Accessible full bath
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $253k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-197/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 0.9% in Surf City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#357 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pender County Schools (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #66 of 178 in NC (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Topsail Elementary (math 70% / reading 68%, grade A-, #105 of 1,410 statewide, top 8%, 608 students, 26% FRL); Topsail Middle (math 64% / reading 65%, grade A-, #30 of 475 statewide, top 7%, 807 students, 20% FRL); Topsail High (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #121 of 535 statewide, top 24%, 1,777 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 22% FRL vs 47% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pender County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 943 units permitted in Pender County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pender County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $253k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,398 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $261,184
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 Pond View Cir	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,201 (-2%)	1mo	$263,000	$219	80
102 Robin Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,338 (+9%)	2mo	$265,000	$198	53
120 S Burning Tree Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,311 (+6%)	7mo	$260,000	$198	45
204 Oval Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,150 (-7%)	16mo	$244,000	$212	42
64 Warwick Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+5%)	24mo	$228,000	$176	41
137 Pond View Cir	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+10%)	22mo	$300,000	$222	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-38,908
• Equity at exit: $37,723

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-21,940
• Equity at exit: $21,875

Cash invested: $70,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28443

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,994 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,327
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $936/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,015

Max offer price $250,104

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $55	+0% $-16	+5% $-88	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-95	+0% $-16	+5% $62	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $48	base $-16	+0.5pp $-82	+1.0pp $-149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,250
• Closing costs: $7,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $253,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $253,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $253,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $253,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-05-22
   price $253,000
6. 2026-04-28
   price $258,000
7. 2026-04-09
   listed $262,000 Active
8. 2026-04-08
   historical
9. 2026-02-13
   listed $275,000 Active
10. 2025-09-18
    soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $936 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,139/yr (+$95/mo · 121.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,172
• − Property taxes: −$936
• − Insurance: −$2,062
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,914
• − Management: −$1,914
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$7,360
• Taxable loss: −$4,611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,107
• After-tax cash flow: $910/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pender County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,792
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3342
• State rank: #66 of 178 in NC

Livability — Surf City

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #357
• US rank: #14131

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime C Employment A- Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pender County · 28,416 people
• Metro: Wilmington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 28,416
• Household income: $90,477
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Pender County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,295 people
• By 2030: 74,990 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 85,954 · +24.0%
• By 2050: 95,925 · +38.4%
• By 2075: 117,525 · +69.6%
• By 2100: 129,074 · +86.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pender

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.0) · D 32.1% · R 67.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.0 2020: R+29.9 2016: R+30.4 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.51%
• Current HPI: 188.426
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.57%
• Metro: Wilmington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+110.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $253,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $258,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $262,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $275,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $936 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.