3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,244 sqft ·
Built 2024
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 10 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,538/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,092
Tax + insurance
−$988
HOA
−$162
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$953
Net cashflow
$343/mo
Annual
$4,114/yr
Cap rate
7.78%
Cash-on-cash
5.32%
DSCR
1.24
1% rule
1.14%
Cash to close
$111,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $399k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $343 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $399k).
Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Avalon Elementary School (math 47% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 346 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Collier average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $4,538/mo this rent would consume 87% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TM2RWC0QXBMC2R
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29