33 Reed St

Sinclairville, NY 14782

$128,500D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Active · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,124/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$674
• Tax + insurance: −$327
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-113/mo
• Annual: $-1,356/yr
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.77%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $35,980

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $109k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (12.6% below list).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($888 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,062 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Cassadaga Valley Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #372 of 590 in NY (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?