33 Reed St · Sinclairville, NY 14782

$128,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1962 0.75 ac lot $115/sqft · at area comps Est $127k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Sinclairville! This home is a diamond in the rough. Quiet street and country views. Featuring 3 Bedrooms, 1 full bath, dining, large livingroom, and kitchen. Partially finished basement. Come take a look and make it your first or last home. Sold as is, where is. No repairs to be made by sellers.

Key facts

• 0.75 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1962

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $109k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,062 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Cassadaga Valley Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #372 of 590 in NY (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($888 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $108,543 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.77%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,820
• List price: $128,500
• Delta: 1.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
69 Park St	0.49mi	3/1.0	964 (-14%)	22mo	$109,000	$113	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $19,616
• Equity at exit: $69,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $67,140
• Equity at exit: $117,895

Cash invested: $35,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14782

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,124 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$674
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,279/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,267

Max offer price $108,543

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,125
• Closing costs: $3,855
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $128,500 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $128,500 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $128,500 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-02-12
   price $128,500 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Welcome to Sinclairville! This home is a diamond in the rough. Quiet street and country views. Featuring 3 Bedrooms, 1 full bath, dining, large livingroom, and kitchen. Partially finished basement. Come take a look and make it your first or last home. Sold as is, where is. No repairs to be made by sellers.

5. 2025-12-02
   listed $134,900 Active 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Welcome to Sinclairville! This home is a diamond in the rough. Quiet street and country views. Featuring 3 Bedrooms, 1 full bath, dining, large livingroom, and kitchen. Partially finished basement. Come take a look and make it your first or last home. Sold as is, where is. No repairs to be made by sellers.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,279 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,279 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,279
• − Insurance: −$642
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,079
• − Management: −$1,079
• − Depreciation: −$3,738
• Taxable loss: −$3,531
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$847
• After-tax cash flow: $-508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cassadaga Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606660
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $46,654
• Composite: 43.22/100
• National rank: #3059
• State rank: #372 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sinclairville

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1062
• US rank: #21176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sinclairville, NY
• City population: 2,010
• Population (ZIP): 2,010

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Current HPI: 383.2164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $128,500 UNYREIS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $134,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,279 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.