1538 E Nightingale Ln

Gilbert, AZ 85298

$599,999D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,421 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Pending · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,138/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax + insurance: −$447
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $-1,214/mo
• Annual: $-14,574/yr
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.67%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $168,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $385k (35.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (47.7% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($546k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $314k (47.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $54k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $223k; list at $600k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$87k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.