1538 E Nightingale Ln · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$599,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,421 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 2005 6,600 sqft lot $248/sqft · at area comps Est $619k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUGE price Improvement on this beautiful home! Check out this pool home just in time for pool season! This is a well-maintained, two-story home offering over 2,000 sq ft with 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms and an upstairs loft. The entry features tall ceilings that provide an open, airy feel. The kitchen includes quality cabinetry and generous storage and connects easily to the main living spaces. The backyard offers a pool, real grass lawn, and a mature fruit tree, creating a functional outdoor space for everyday use. NEW ROOF in December 2025! Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. View this beautiful home today!

Key facts

• Tall ceilings
• Real grass lawn
• Generous storage

Tags

• TALL CEILINGS
• QUALITY CABINETRY
• GENEROUS STORAGE
• BACKYARD POOL
• REAL GRASS LAWN
• MATURE FRUIT TREE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $385k (35.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (47.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $314k (47.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $54k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$87k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($546k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $223k; list at $600k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $313,777 (47.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.67%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 15.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $618,795
• List price: $599,999
• Delta: -3.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1264 E Walnut Rd	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,418 (-0%)	11mo	$660,000	$273	74
1236 E Nightingale Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0	2,361 (-2%)	1mo	$650,000	$275	74
1463 E Lodgepole Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,364 (-2%)	4mo	$840,000	$355	65
1234 E Lark St	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,492 (+3%)	2mo	$605,000	$243	59
1332 E Cassia Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0	2,097 (-13%)	4mo	$618,000	$295	58
1123 E Buckingham Ave	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,571 (+6%)	7mo	$675,000	$263	56
1270 E Baranca Rd	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,627 (+8%)	6mo	$720,000	$274	55
4956 S Leisure Way	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,587 (+7%)	9mo	$705,000	$273	50
1247 E Bautista Rd	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,627 (+8%)	10mo	$730,000	$278	49
1458 E Lodgepole Dr	0.53mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,782 (+15%)	2mo	$831,900	$299	44
5439 S Red Rock St	0.55mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,782 (+15%)	5mo	$825,000	$297	40
5029 S Carlyle Dr	0.73mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,200 (-9%)	11mo	$675,000	$307	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $187,773
• Equity at exit: $470,729

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.64×
• Total profit: $611,810
• Equity at exit: $948,966

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 15.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,138 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,362/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $-1,214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,675

Max offer price $385,457

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1546 E Nightingale Ln Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.5	2421	$3,500	$1.45	18d	1	0.02mi
1447 E Mia Ln Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2421	$2,345	$0.97	43d	1	0.13mi
4957 S Stonecreek Blvd Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2418	$2,600	$1.08	14d	1	0.19mi
1315 E Walnut Rd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2097	$2,145	$1.02	43d	1	0.29mi
1129 E Regent Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.5	2323	$3,100	$1.33	4d	1	0.52mi
1133 E Buckingham Ave Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2571	$2,999	$1.17	24d	1	0.59mi
1533 E Sourwood Ct Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	2750	$3,300	$1.20	43d	1	0.65mi
4535 S Ellesmere St Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	2324	$2,650	$1.14	14d	1	0.74mi
1094 E Sourwood Dr Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	3059	$2,799	$0.92	43d	1	0.81mi
1477 E Hummingbird Way Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2055	$2,550	$1.24	2d	1	0.90mi
1544 E Hummingbird Way Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	2771	$2,895	$1.04	2d	1	0.92mi
3883 E Desert Broom Dr Chandler, AZ	4.0	3.0	1937	$2,849	$1.47	24d	1	1.01mi
1277 E Tonto Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.5	2952	$4,000	$1.36	24d	1	1.10mi
3739 E Trinity Ln Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.5	1741	$2,349	$1.35	4d	1	1.13mi
4146 E Glacier Pl Chandler, AZ	5.0	3.0	3240	$3,299	$1.02	21d	1	1.20mi
884 E Ladbroke Way Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	2211	$2,900	$1.31	2d	1	1.23mi
638 E Charlevoix Ave Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	2945	$3,950	$1.34	1d	1	1.29mi
2224 E Canary Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2595	$3,450	$1.33	21d	1	1.43mi
5475 S Cardinal St Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.5	2708	$4,000	$1.48	1d	1	1.44mi
2543 E Penedes Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2496	$2,695	$1.08	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   HUGE price Improvement on this beautiful home! Check out this pool home just in time for pool season! This is a well-maintained, two-story home offering over 2,000 sq ft with 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms and an upstairs loft. The entry features tall ceilings that provide an open, airy feel. The kitchen includes quality cabinetry and generous storage and connects easily to the main living spaces. The backyard offers a pool, real grass lawn, and a mature fruit tree, creating a functional outdoor space for everyday use. NEW ROOF in December 2025! Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. View this beautiful home today!

2. 2026-04-03
   price $599,999 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   HUGE price Improvement on this beautiful home! Check out this pool home just in time for pool season! This is a well-maintained, two-story home offering over 2,000 sq ft with 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms and an upstairs loft. The entry features tall ceilings that provide an open, airy feel. The kitchen includes quality cabinetry and generous storage and connects easily to the main living spaces. The backyard offers a pool, real grass lawn, and a mature fruit tree, creating a functional outdoor space for everyday use. NEW ROOF in December 2025! Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. View this beautiful home today!

3. 2026-03-28
   price $630,000 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   HUGE price Improvement on this beautiful home! Check out this pool home just in time for pool season! This is a well-maintained, two-story home offering over 2,000 sq ft with 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms and an upstairs loft. The entry features tall ceilings that provide an open, airy feel. The kitchen includes quality cabinetry and generous storage and connects easily to the main living spaces. The backyard offers a pool, real grass lawn, and a mature fruit tree, creating a functional outdoor space for everyday use. NEW ROOF in December 2025! Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. View this beautiful home today!

4. 2026-03-13
   price $635,000 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   HUGE price Improvement on this beautiful home! Check out this pool home just in time for pool season! This is a well-maintained, two-story home offering over 2,000 sq ft with 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms and an upstairs loft. The entry features tall ceilings that provide an open, airy feel. The kitchen includes quality cabinetry and generous storage and connects easily to the main living spaces. The backyard offers a pool, real grass lawn, and a mature fruit tree, creating a functional outdoor space for everyday use. NEW ROOF in December 2025! Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. View this beautiful home today!

5. 2026-02-08
   listed $640,000 Active 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   HUGE price Improvement on this beautiful home! Check out this pool home just in time for pool season! This is a well-maintained, two-story home offering over 2,000 sq ft with 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms and an upstairs loft. The entry features tall ceilings that provide an open, airy feel. The kitchen includes quality cabinetry and generous storage and connects easily to the main living spaces. The backyard offers a pool, real grass lawn, and a mature fruit tree, creating a functional outdoor space for everyday use. NEW ROOF in December 2025! Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. View this beautiful home today!

6. 2004-04-13
   soldstatus $223,168
7. 2004-04-01
   soldstatus $223,168

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,362 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,960 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,598/yr (+$133/mo · 67.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$2,362
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,012
• − Management: −$3,012
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable loss: −$25,997
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,239
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+168.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $599,999 ARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $630,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $635,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-08 Listed $640,000 ARMLS
• 2004-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $223,168 Public Records
• 2004-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $223,168 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,362 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.