2830 Valley Dr

Helena Valley Southeast, MT 59635

$89,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Built 2002 · MultiFamily · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,704/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $1,521/mo
• Annual: $18,253/yr
• Cap rate: 26.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.25%
• DSCR: 4.26
• 1% rule: 3.04%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $89k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $89k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#160 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• East Helena K-12 (town): math 38% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #50 of 116 in MT (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 456 units permitted in Lewis and Clark County in 2024 (207 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lewis and Clark County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 26.8% vs local median 2.3% in Helena Valley Southeast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition with visible damage.
• Major: exterior siding — The siding appears to be in poor condition with visible wear and tear.
• Major: interior walls — The interior walls appear to be in poor condition with visible wear and tear.
• Major: flooring — The flooring appears to be in poor condition with visible wear and tear.
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No visible signs of HVAC or mechanical systems in the provided photos.
• Major: landscaping — The landscaping appears to be in poor condition with overgrown grass and minimal maintenance.