2830 Valley Dr · Helena Valley Southeast, MT 59635

$89,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · MultiFamily · 41 Days on market

Built 2002 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Key facts

• Large windows
• Dual sinks
• Open floor plan

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE WINDOWS
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• DUAL SINKS
• OUTDOOR LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $89k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.8% vs local median 2.3% in Helena Valley Southeast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#160 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• East Helena K-12 (town): math 38% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #50 of 116 in MT (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 456 units permitted in Lewis and Clark County in 2024 (207 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis and Clark County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.25%
• DSCR: 4.26
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $82,499
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.90×
• Total profit: $196,752
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59635

• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,704 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $1,521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,583	-5% $1,552	+0% $1,521	+5% $1,490	+10% $1,460
Rent	-10% $1,307	-5% $1,414	+0% $1,521	+5% $1,628	+10% $1,735
Rate	-1.0pp $1,566	-0.5pp $1,544	base $1,521	+0.5pp $1,498	+1.0pp $1,475

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	2	$2,704
Total (2 units)			$2,704

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 S Helena Ave East Helena, MT	3.0	1.0	912	$1,895	$2.08	44d	1	1.25mi
285 S Helena Ave Unit A East Helena, MT	2.0	2.0	1333	$2,000	$1.50	44d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   price $89,000
3. 2026-04-09
   price $94,900
4. 2026-03-16
   listed $99,900 Active
5. 2025-01-08
   status Active
6. 2024-12-27
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2024-12-23
   listed $500,000 Active
8. 2024-12-03
   price $550,000
9. 2024-09-26
   listed $650,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,596
• − Management: −$2,596
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $17,902
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,296
• After-tax cash flow: $13,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The home is in poor condition with extensive repairs and maintenance needed. Significant improvements to the roof, exterior siding, interior walls, flooring, HVAC, landscaping, windows, and foundation would greatly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition with visible damage.
• Major exterior siding — The siding appears to be in poor condition with visible wear and tear.
• Major interior walls — The interior walls appear to be in poor condition with visible wear and tear.
• Major flooring — The flooring appears to be in poor condition with visible wear and tear.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible signs of HVAC or mechanical systems in the provided photos.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping appears to be in poor condition with overgrown grass and minimal maintenance.
• Major windows — The windows appear to be in poor condition with visible wear and tear.
• Major foundation/structure — The foundation and structure appear to be in poor condition with visible wear and tear and potential structural issues.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — Replacing the roof would significantly improve the home's condition and appearance.
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the exterior siding would improve the home's condition and appearance.
• Both interior wall repair — Repairing the interior walls would improve the home's condition and appearance.
• Both flooring replacement — Replacing the flooring would improve the home's condition and appearance.
• Both HVAC/mechanical upgrade — Upgrading the HVAC and mechanical systems would improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal would enhance the home's exterior and attract potential buyers or renters.
• Both window repair or replacement — Repairing or replacing the windows would improve the home's condition and appearance.
• Both foundation and structure repair — Repairing the foundation and structure would improve the home's condition and structural integrity.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears to be in poor condition with visible damage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The siding appears to be in poor condition with visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · The interior walls appear to be in poor condition with visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The flooring appears to be in poor condition with visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible signs of HVAC or mechanical systems in the provided photos.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping appears to be in poor condition with overgrown grass and minimal maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · The windows appear to be in poor condition with visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation/structure · The foundation and structure appear to be in poor condition with visible wear and tear and potential structural issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — Replacing the roof would significantly improve the home's condition and appearance. ↑
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the exterior siding would improve the home's condition and appearance. ↑
• Both interior wall repair — Repairing the interior walls would improve the home's condition and appearance. ↑
• Both flooring replacement — Replacing the flooring would improve the home's condition and appearance. ↑
• Both HVAC/mechanical upgrade — Upgrading the HVAC and mechanical systems would improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal would enhance the home's exterior and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both window repair or replacement — Repairing or replacing the windows would improve the home's condition and appearance. ↑
• Both foundation and structure repair — Repairing the foundation and structure would improve the home's condition and structural integrity. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Helena K-12
• NCES district ID: 3000655
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,025
• Composite: 35.76/100
• National rank: #4847
• State rank: #50 of 116 in MT

Livability — Helena Valley Southeast

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #15212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Helena Valley Southeast, MT
• Population (ZIP): 8,382

Population outlook (Lewis and Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 72,720 people
• By 2030: 75,403 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 79,496 · +9.3%
• By 2050: 82,741 · +13.8%
• By 2075: 90,296 · +24.2%
• By 2100: 93,425 · +28.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Serbian 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis and Clark

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 45.4% · R 51.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 6.5pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.9 2012: R+3.6 2008: D+6.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.79%
• Current HPI: 240.2398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-86.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — MRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $89,000 MRMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $94,900 MRMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $99,900 MRMLS
• 2025-01-08 Relisted — MRMLS
• 2024-12-27 Contingent — MRMLS
• 2024-12-23 Listed $500,000 MRMLS
• 2024-12-03 Price Changed $550,000 MRMLS
• 2024-09-26 Listed $650,000 MRMLS